ECONOMIC FORECASTING WITH THE NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH
We would all like to have a clearer idea of what the future holds so that we can make better decisions today. That is why governments, central banks and businesses make use of economic forecasts as a guide to policymaking, investment appraisal and planning.
We also recognise, however, that there are the limits to how well the future can be predicted. NIESR has been publishing its economic forecasts since November 1963 and has learnt that the forecast process is inherently subject to large surprises. That does not invalidate the need for forecasts. Rather, it obliges reputable forecasters to set out in advance the scope for forecast errors by use of uncertainty or scenario plots so that users know how to interpret them.
This short Executive Course will provide a guide to producing and interpreting economic forecasts by means of economic models. Participants will be guided by NIESR staff and by other recognised international experts in forecasting. By the end of the course they will be able to produce simple model-based forecasts themselves, understand the sensitivity of forecasts to surprises, and be able to communicate the risks to senior stakeholders in business and government.
Is this course aimed at you?
The course will be particularly valuable to executives at senior levels who are routinely presented with forecasts produced by specialists. It will help them understand how forecasts are constructed and the extent of the risks around them. This will provide a basis for rigorous challenge. The course will also be beneficial to trained economists who are seeking to produce forecasts for their organisations or need a better understanding of how to present forecasts to seniors in their organisations. Organisations will benefit from having executives who have a clear understanding of both the usefulness of economic forecasts and their limitations.
If you require something more bespoke, please just get in touch about a customised version of this course. Please email email@example.com
It was a high level course, with excellent teachers that kept us interested in advanced forecasting, its limitations and the ways to overcome them. Plus, I was taught how to use the NiGEM model in many ways for world simulations and forecasting.”Past participant
A good introductory course to macroeconomic modelling and a good opportunity to think about economic shocks and how we can think about them."Past participant
Excellent, knowledgeable speakers willing to engage with attendees and covering a good mix of theory and application”Past participant
One of a kind, very well organised, great motivational speakers with deep knowledge and real-life experiences in their field”Past participant
Duration: 3 days
The next available dates are:
- Monday 24 - Wednesday 26 September 2018
- Monday 17 - Wednesday 19 December 2018
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Award: you will receive a University of Warwick Certificate of Attendance on completion of the programme
Fee: £1,950. There is an early bird incentive and other incentives for the public sector - see Fees and discounts
We can design a customised version for your organisation (e.g. shorter duration). If interested please contact us.
Contact us: Rachael Brogan, Administrative Manager
Tel: +44 (0) 20-3859-7720
Participants from the following organisations have taken part in the course:
- Emecep consulting
- Ministry of Finance, Greece
- Infrastructure and Project’s Authority
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The State of the Nation with The National Institute of Economic and Social Research