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Week 4 2014/15

This week's multi choice questions focus on material provided in the statistics lecture on 17th October, and some pre-reading material for next Fridays lecture. The questions are divided into two parts because of this, and they will be assessed differently. PART 1: Please answer all the questions, but do so using your intuition, or statistical knowledge you already have (i.e. don't try and search for the answer). We are interested here in general views. In some cases more than one answer may be appropriate (although you should submit only one). You will receive credit for filling in this section, not for the mark you obtain in it. Part 2: This is a normal, multiple choice series. Please read section A of the Summary for Policymakers from the IPCC WG2 (Impacts), which will help with these questions. The deadline for this work is MONDAY 27th OCTOBER 2014 at 10am.

Please read each piece of text and then fill in your view underneath before moving onto the next text. A new possible cure for Ebola, called EBC, has been identified, and is now ready for a small scale clinical trial. In this trial two groups of 10 infected individuals are chosen, one will receive EBC, the other a placebo. In the group receiving EBC, 7 out of 10 patients survive. In the placebo group, 4 out of 10 patients survive.
On the basis of this, what would conclude about the effectiveness of EBC (required)

A test for a rare genetic condition is 99% accurate in the sense both that 99% of sufferers will show positive for the condition, and 99% of non-sufferers will show negative. It is known that 0.2 % of the population are sufferers.
What is the probability that a randomly selected individual who tests positive has the condition?

Hypothetical measurements of global warming show it to be occurring at at rate of 0.1 +/- 0.05 degrees per decade, with the +/- error bar given at the 1-sigma level (67%). 2 times this would be 95% and 3 times 99.7%.
What is the probability that the last 10 years would show an effective flat temperature profile
A study shows that there is a strong correlation that hair loss in later life and watching football on TV (this is in fact a well known correlation). Does this imply that

This is now part 2 of the multiple choice test. You will receive credit for answering the above questions (but not a mark). This element will be marked as normal.
What effect does the absorption of CO2 by the ocean have on its properties?
How has climate change impacted crops?
Which of the following reflects the consensus view about climate impacts on human health (tick all that apply)
In what ways has climate change already affected marine life? (Mark all that apply)
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