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MEMVIE: Mathematical & Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation

Immunization is a key and highly successful tool in the fight against a range of infectious diseases, but is associated with a considerable cost, with the UK spending in excess of £200 million per year on vaccines and vaccine delivery. Infectious disease and health economic models are therefore necessary to assess whether any change in the immunization programme is cost-effective; that is, whether the value placed on health benefits or improvements in social welfare that ensue are less than the incremental cost associated with the change in programme.

The University of Warwick has considerable experience and expertise in this area, with the assembled team serving on several government advisory boards associated with public health. The team brings cutting-edge research techniques in mathematical modelling and health economics to provide a complementary second opinion on the work undertaken in this area by Public Health England (PHE). Warwick has a strong international reputation for work on a range of infectious diseases and providing measured policy advice to a number of government agencies.

Through regular meetings with the Department of Health (DH) and PHE we ensure that our programme of dynamic and health economic modelling on infectious diseases meets the needs of DH, and reports are presented in a way that is of immediate use to policy-makers. In particular, we outline assumptions made, highlight gaps in the necessary data and define how these affect the interpretation of the results. Two other methods are being used to validate our conclusions: firstly, we seek to publish our findings in appropriate journals thereby opening our results to peer-review by the wider international academic community; secondly, we compare our predictions to changes in disease incidence and other health outcomes that follow changes in vaccine policy.

The infectious diseases (and connected vaccination programmes) under study by the MEMVIE team are:

Pertussis vaccineFlu vaccine

    1. Hill EM, Petrou S, de Lusignan S, Yonova I & Keeling MJ. (2019) Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation. PLoS Computational Biology 15(10): e1007096. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007096.
    2. Datta S, Pink J, Medley GF, Petrou S, Staniszewska S, Underwood M, Sonnenberg P & Keeling MJ. (2019) Assessing the cost-effectiveness of vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys. BMC Infectious Diseases 19: 552. doi: 10.1186/s12879-019-4108-y
    3. Datta S, Pink J, Medley GF, Petrou S, Staniszewska S, Underwood M, Sonnenberg P & Keeling MJ. Modelling the transmission of HPV in the UK. (Submitted)
    4. Datta S, Pink J, Petrou S & Keeling, MJ. An economic evaluation of a cocooning strategy for pertussis vaccination in England and Wales. (Submitted)
    5. Shiri T, Kamran K, Keaney K, Mukherjee G, McCarthy ND & Petrou S. (2019) Pneumococcal Disease: A Systematic Review of Health Utilities, Resource Use, Costs, and Economic Evaluations of Interventions. Value in Health. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2019.06.011
    6. Shiri T, McCarthy ND & Petrou S. (2019) The impact of childhood pneumococcal vaccination on hospital admissions in England: A whole population observational study. BMC Infectious Diseases 19: 510. doi: 10.1186/s12879-019-4119-8
    7. Datta S, Mercer CH & Keeling MJ. (2018) Capturing sexual contact patterns in modelling the spread of sexually transmitted infections: Evidence using Natsal-3. PloS ONE 13(11): e0206501. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206501
    8. Leng T & Keeling MJ (2018) Concurrency of partnerships, consistency with data, and control of sexually transmitted infections. Epidemics 25: 35-46. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.003
    9. Nzenze SA, Madhi SA, Shiri T, Klugman KP, de Gouveia L, Moore DP, Karstaedt AS, Tempia S, Nunes MC & von Gottberg A (2017) Imputing the Direct and Indirect Effectiveness of Childhood Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Against Invasive Pneumococcal Disease by Surveying Temporal Changes in Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Colonization. Am. J. Epidemiol. 186(4): 435-444. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwx048
    10. Shiri T, Datta S, Madan J, Tsertsvadze A, Royle P, Keeling MJ, McCarthy ND & Petrou S (2017) Indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Glob. Health. 5(1): e51-e59. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30306-0
    11. Pink J, Parker B &Petrou S (2016) Cost effectiveness of HPV vaccination: a systematic review of modelling approaches. Pharmacoeconomics 34(9): 847-861. doi: 10.1007/s40273-016-0407-y

    DH logo (small)

    A 6-year project, funded by the UK Department of Health.

    Researchers involved:


    Matt Keeling (Professor, joint between Warwick Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences)


    Stavros Petrou (Professor in Health Economics, Warwick Medical School)


    Graham Medley (Professor, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

    Sophie Staniszewska

    Sophie Staniszewska (Leader of Patient and Public Involvement, Warwick Medical School)


    Martin Underwood (Director of Clinical Trials Unit, Warwick Medical School)


    Ed Hill (Postdoctoral researcher, Warwick Mathematics Institute)