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Castaño, MS, et al (2020). Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC). PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 14(1), e0007976

Castaño, MS, Ndeffo-Mbah, ML, Rock, KS, Palmer, C, Knock, E, Miaka, EM, Ndung’u, JM, Torr, S, Verlé, P, Spencer, SEF, Galvani, A, Bever, C, Keeling, MJ, Chitnis, N (2020). Assessing the impact of aggregating disease stage data in model predictions of human African trypanosomiasis transmission and control activities in Bandundu province (DRC). PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 14(1), e0007976. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0007976

Human African tryposonomiasis (HAT), also known as sleeping sickness, is a parasitic disease with over 65 million people estimated to be living at risk of infection. Sleeping sickness consists of two stages: the first one is relatively mild but the second stage is usually fatal if untreated. The World Health Organization has targeted HAT for elimination as a public health problem by 2020 and for elimination of transmission by 2030. Regular monitoring updates indicate that 2020 elimination goals are likely to be achieved. This monitoring relies mainly on case report data that is collected through medical-based control activities—the main strategy employed so far in HAT control. This epidemiological data are also used to calibrate mathematical models that can be used to analyse current interventions and provide projections of potential intensified strategies. We investigated the role of the type and level of aggregation of this HAT case data (staging data and truncated data) on model calibrations and projections. We highlight that the lack of detailed epidemiological information, such as missing stage of disease or truncated time series data, impacts model recommendations for strategy choice: it can misrepresent the underlying HAT epidemiology (for example, the ratio of stage 1 to stage 2 cases) and increase uncertainty in predictions. Consistently including new data from control activities as well as enriching it through cross-sectional (e.g. demographic or behavioural data) and geo-located data is likely to improve modelling accuracy to support planning, monitoring and adapting HAT interventions.

Tue 21 Jan 2020, 11:15