Over the last 20 years, funding from Defra and AHDB Horticulture (formerly HDC) in particular has enabled the development of a variety of models for forecasting pest outbreaks, some of which have been used very successfully to target control measures. Such models can also be used to predict the future impact of climate change on pest insects.
Unfortunately, changes in funding strategies mean that these bespoke models are no longer supported in terms of software upgrades and some will become inaccessible in the longer term as operating systems change. Through funding from AHDB Horticulture, the equations for four of the MORPH pest models (cabbage root fly, carrot fly, pollen beetle, large narcissus fly) and three day-degree models (lettuce-root aphid, willow-carrot aphid, currant-lettuce aphid) have been extracted and summarised into a spreadsheet-based tool in EXCEL so that they are available to others. These are simpler versions of the models but validations of these initial versions confirm that the approach is valid (Final Report CP 127 - Compendium of pest forecasting models).
You can access the models here:
|Cabbage root fly||Early-emerging flies||Late-emerging flies|
|Carrot fly||Overwinter as pupae||Overwinter as larvae|
|Large narcissus fly|
|Day-degree models for aphids|
If you have any problems with downloading the models please e-mail rosemary dot collier at warwick dot ac dot uk