Skip to main content Skip to navigation

Health Economics & Modelling


Study Title


Study Lead

Health & Social Care
Partner Organisations

Lay Summary


A systematic review and meta-analysis to identify the health and economic consequences of adverse events at the patient level

Prof Richard Lilford,
University of Warwick

Identifying the health and economic consequences of undesirable experiences for patients associated with healthcare. The effect of interventions or policies that aim to improve the way health services are delivered, such as hand washing or increasing nurse to patient ratios, on patient health outcomes cannot often be measured in experimental trials. We develop an alternative method of evaluating these policies and interventions that involves incorporating evidence from multiple sources.


Identifying medical risk in the criminal justice system – economic evaluation of Liaison and Diversion services

Prof Richard Lilford,
University of Warwick

RAND Europe


A pilot evaluation of an intervention to improve the identification of people with health (especially mental health) needs as they proceed through the criminal justice system.

Modelling the evidence for stockpiling neuraminidase inhibitors for pandemic usage

Dr Sam Watson,
University of Warwick

University of Nottingham

Influenza pandemics are rare but may have potentially catastrophic consequences. Governments around the world have to decide whether or not to stockpile anti-influenza medication like neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) antivirals as a defence against pandemic influenza. However, there has been a lack of conclusive evidence regarding the effectiveness of NAIs. Recent meta-analyses of RCTs of seasonal influenza cases have been unable to confirm or refute an effect of NAIs on important clinical end points such as mortality. A meta-analysis of observational data from pandemic influenza did find evidence of a reduction in the risk of mortality, however, this study has been criticised for being subject to a large degree of bias. The objective of this study was to determine whether NAIs should be stockpiled for treatment of pandemic influenza on the basis of current evidence.

Walking away from gestational diabetes

Dr Dr Ponnusamy Saravanan,
University of Warwick

Two centre study
1) East Midlands - University of Leicester and University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust. 2) West Midlands - University of Warwick and George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust.

This project represents a collaboration with CLAHRC East Midlands

Background and aim: Women with gestational diabetes are seven times more likely to develop type 2 diabetes within 10 years. The number of cases is growing because of unhealthy lifestyles. The aim of this project is to develop and implement lifestyle education programmes that meet social and cultural needs.
Development: We will ask local women to help us develop face-to-face and online education programmes, including women of South Asian origin.
Implementation: We will identify women with a diagnosis of gestational diabetes 6-36 months ago using hospital databases. Two-hundred-and-fifty volunteers will be randomly allocated to usual care or intervention groups for 12 months. The usual care group will receive usual care plus an information leaflet about healthy lifestyle choices after childbirth. The intervention group will receive usual care plus a referral to the education programmes. In light of feedback we have already received from patients, we will reimburse travel expenses, reimburse childcare expenses, and provide crèches.
Measure of success: Physical activity is the most important measure in this study and participants will wear a physical activity monitor for seven days before, during and after the study. The education programmes will be deemed successful if physical activity increases by around 30 minutes per day.
Impact: An increase in physical activity of around 30 minutes per day is sufficient to reduce type 2 diabetes risk by 30-50%, as part of a healthy lifestyle. We will work with local stakeholders during the study to ensure it is widely implemented if it is successful.