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Paper No. 07-14

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E Riccomagno and JQ Smith

The Causal Manipulation of Chain Event Graphs

Abstract: Discrete Bayesian Networks (BN’s) have been very successful as a framework both for inference and for expressing certain causal hypotheses. In this paper we present a class of graphical models called the chain event graph (CEG) models, that generalises the class of discrete BN models. It provides a flexible and expressive framework for representing and analysing the implications of causal hypotheses, expressed in terms of the effects of a manipulation of the generating underlying system.We prove that, as for a BN, identifiability analyses of causal effects can be performed through examining the topology of the CEG graph, leading to theorems analogous to the back-door theorem for the BN.