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ST338 Actuarial Models

Lecturer(s): Dr Panayiota Constantinou

IImportant: Within the Dept of Statistics, this module is only available to students on the four year degrees MMORSE and MMathStat. For students outside the Dept of Statistics, it will not be permitted for this module to be taken as an unusual option.

New for 19/20: BSc students with their home department in Statistics are permitted to take this module if they have permission from all relevant parties via an Unusual Option form.

Prerequisite(s): ST334 Actuarial Methods, ST218/219 Mathematical Statistics A&B

Commitment: 3 lectures per week, 1 exercise class per week starting in week 3. This module runs in Term 2 and is weighted at 15 CATS.

Content:

  • Principles of actuarial modelling
  • Principles of stochastic processes
  • Markov chains and Markov processes
  • Survival models: lifetimes, curtate future lifetime, expected value and variance.
  • Estimation procedures for lifetime distributions: Kaplan–Meier estimate, Cox model
  • Multi-state Markov models.
  • Maximum likelihood estimators for transition intensities in multi-state models.
  • Binomial model of mortality.
  • Estimating mortality rates by age: exact methods, census approximations
  • Process of graduation.
  • Statistical tests for life tables.

Aims: To cover the syllabus for Institute of Actuaries exam CT4.

Objectives: At the end of the course, students will be familiar with calculations involving life tables and survival analysis.

Assessment: Two-hour examination (80%) and two one-hour class tests (10% each).

Deadline: Class Test 1: week 4 and Class Test 2: week 8.

Feedback: Feedback on class tests will be returned within 20 working days, following each test.

Examination Period: Summer