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The early pandemic paradox: fewer deaths in the first 4 months from December 2019 to March 2020 compared to the previous 5 years

An analysis of national weekly mortality rates between December 2019 – March 2020, compared to the same period for the previous five years, by researchers at WMG and WMS, University of Warwick, has shown that there have been fewer deaths registered this year during the lead up to the Covid-19 pandemic. Researchers have called this the SARS-CoV-2 Paradox - which could be due to early social distancing measures.
  • Scientists at the Institute of Digital Healthcare, WMG and Warwick Medical School, at the University of Warwick, have analysed mortality statistics in the UK during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, by analysing the weekly national mortality statistics over the last five years including the subgroup of respiratory mortality rates
  • They found there were fewer deaths recorded from the end of December 2019 until the end of March 2020 in comparison to the previous five years, including in the subgroup assessment of respiratory mortality rates
  • The researchers describe a SARS-CoV-2 Paradox that resulted in a lower death rate during the early stages of the pandemic in comparison to previous years, perhaps due to government enforced social distancing introduced in the middle of March.
  • Some had already engaged with social distancing before a formal lockdown, and precautions such as more hand washing, lead to a reduction in the mixing of those with infectious diseases including, but not exclusive of, SARS-CoV-2

Mon 22 Jun 2020, 12:06 | Tags: Digital Health, Theo Arvanitis, WMS, COVID-19, UHCW