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December 2011

WMG Research Seminar Series 2011, 12:00, Wednesday 14th December

IDL Auditorium, University of Warwick

Lunch follows after seminar

WMG Seminar Keynote:

The Future of the Euro with Christopher Moir

Received UK wisdom in the Eurozone single currency regime cannot last in its current form. To many the single currency policy design, and implementation are flawed to the point of self-destruction. Many so called market participants are saying the same thing. There is now an open discussion in the press, online, on television and radio of the consequences of the breakup of the Eurozone. If asset managers acted on what they were saying, economists would expect a marked change in the €/$ exchange rate. Crudely the € might be expected to appreciate significantly if demand for German € denominated assets exceeded the selling of non German € denominated assets. The converse applies. At the time of writing there has not been big shifts in €/$ rates. So what is going on? Intelligent commentators acknowledge that an economic collapse of countries in the Eurozone would impose huge costs of the UK. There is no shortage of economic advice from both sides of the English Channel and the Atlantic as to what needs to be done to restore Eurozone economic stability and apparently save the world from a deep recession. The talk will examine the plausibility of some of these suggestions, albeit very briefly, from the standpoint of the current literature in economics. It will be done in a non-technical way.

Bio

Christopher Moir is a Principle Fellow in Economics in WMG. He came to WMG in 2007 from the DTI following a long career in the Government Economic Service. This service included advice on the consequences of deeper economic integration within the European Union, and EU enlargement. He made a very modest contribution to official advice to Gordon Brown and whether the UK met the requirements of his five tests. He teaches a course on Globalisation.

 

Christopher Moir