The impact of welfare reforms - lessons from history

The impact of welfare reforms - lessons from history

Many in opposition to the government's proposed welfare cuts describe the bill as 'Dickensian' and 'from another era'. While the debate continues, we highlight the work of CAGE Research Associates Eric Melander and Martina Miotto which analyses the impact of the New Poor Law reform of 1834, the largest welfare cut in British history.

Welfare cuts and crime: evidence from the New Poor LawLink opens in a new window looks at the impact of cuts imposed under the New Poor Law on criminal behaviour and finds that:

• The severity of cuts differed significantly across England and Wales, with the counties experiencing the largest cuts subsequently seeing large increases in crime.
• Acquisitive crimes, such as petty thefts and other property crimes, rose strongly while other types of crime were unaffected.
• An additional 2,700 property crimes were created in each post-reform year, which represents a 17.2% increase compared to pre-reform levels.
• These patterns were driven by crimes in the winter months of low agricultural employment, indicating that the welfare cuts may have worsened the already precarious position of the seasonally unemployed.

Eric Melander, Assistant Professor in Economics at Birmingham Business School and CAGE Research Associate said:

"Our study of (literally Dickensian) historical welfare reform in Britain has one key takeaway which will resonate with the debates we see today: the effects of welfare cuts are felt most strongly by those who are already economically vulnerable and can therefore exacerbate existing inequalities. This has important implications, as the direct savings from welfare cuts may at least partly be offset by the direct and indirect social costs that they impose."

• Read the full research paper: Welfare cuts and crime: evidence from the New Poor Law
• Read a summary of the research