A coordinated military approach is needed for 21st century conflicts, new study finds

New research from the CAGE Research Centre at the University of Warwick sheds light on the challenges that NATO faces in operating effective military partnerships and highlights the pivotal role that media coverage plays in shaping public support for foreign military interventions.

Using data from NATO’s mission in Afghanistan which brought together forces from 28 countries, the research led by CAGE Theme Leader Thiemo Fetzer suggests that frictions between NATO members may undermine the coalition’s effectiveness in both security provisions and other support activities such as aid or economic development mandates, indirectly benefiting insurgent violence.

Frictions between troops from different NATO member countries could arise from language barriers, varying styles of leadership, or differences in operating procedures that each may be exacerbated by cultural differences between nation states.

Other recent researchLink opens in a new window recently accepted for publication analyses the human cost of war and public sentiment. Drawing on public opinion data across eight major NATO countries, in the context of the Afghanistan conflict, the 2024 study found a significant link between numbers of casualties in specific countries and declining public support for military engagement.

Significantly the evidence reveals that media coverage has a meaningful influence over public attitudes to battlefield losses and could point to the potential for its weaponisation through the interference of hostile foreign governments. It demonstrates that when the news cycle is dominated by other major news events, such as sports matches, then public reaction to the human cost of war diminishes.

Thiemo Fetzer, Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick and the University of Bonn said:

“The domestic politics of war is a concern for international institutions, especially those developed to engage in military interventions abroad.

“Our research shows that foreign wars are to an important extent fought and sometimes lost on the home front, reflecting the powerful influence of the media in steering public opinion and in influencing the political costs of military operations.

“D-Day was a major coordinated battle which marked the onset of the post WW2 order and gave rise to NATO. As we remember the sacrifices made, it is critical that NATO adopts a coordinated and adaptable approach to navigating the complexities of 21st century conflicts to ensure to ensure peace and stability.”

Further reading:

• Fetzer, Thiemo, Vanden Eynde, Oliver and Wright, Austin L. (2024) Team production on the battlefield: Evidence from NATO in Afghanistan
• Fetzer, Thiemo, Souza, Pedro C. L., Vanden Eynde, Oliver and Wright, Austin L. (2023) Losing on the Home Front? Battlefield casualties, media, and public support for foreign interventionsLink opens in a new window, forthcoming, American Journal of Political Science.