How empty high streets increase support for populist candidates

How empty high streets increase support for populist candidates

High streets traditionally served dual functions: economic exchange and social consumption. But the importance of space for community interaction has largely been overlooked when analysing economic decline.

New evidence finds that the visual reminder of community and economic deterioration which empty store fronts represent, plays a significant role in political behaviour.

Published in the Economic Letters Journal, Local Decline and Populism by Thiemo Fetzer, Jacob Edenhofer, and Prashant Garg investigates the relationship between visible signs of local economic decline and the rise of right-wing populist support in the UK, focusing on the period from 2009 to 2019.

Using data on 83,000 vacant high street premises across 197 towns in England and Wales the team found a significant positive association between vacancy rates and support for UKIP, the right-wing populist party. This was particularly pronounced among unemployed individuals and economically vulnerable groups.

The research also highlights the way the disappearance of traditional social spaces contributes to isolation and loneliness. This was particularly prevalent among older residents who are less integrated into digital social networks and more open to populist messaging promising to restore a lost sense of community and belonging.

Thiemo Fetzer, Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick and CAGE Theme Lead said:

“The relationship between high street vacancies and populist voting behaviour reveals how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences. Empty storefronts represent more than economic statistics—they are visual signifiers of community transformation that affect residents' sense of place and belonging.

“Populist parties have proven adept at channelling grievances about visible decline into political narratives that blame outsider groups. Ironically, our research shows that immigrants rarely settle in declining areas, yet anti-immigration sentiment often flourishes there.

“By understanding these connections, we can develop more effective responses to the challenges of structural economic change and the political reactions they provoke. The future of our democratic politics may depend on how we address not just the economic realities of decline, but its visible manifestations in the spaces where community life unfolds."

• Read the full report: Local decline and populism
• Professor Fetzer discusses his work in The Conversation: To fend off Reform, mainstream parties must address the tangible decline of British towns.Link opens in a new window