CAGE Working Papers April and May 2026
CAGE Working Papers April and May 2026
Friday 22 May 2026CAGE research papers draw on our global academic network of research associates and address topics aligned to our four core themes.
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808 The Broken Ladder: AI, Remote Work, and Early-Career HiringLink opens in a new window
Authors: Peter John Lambert & Yannick Schindler
Theme: Designing and Building Institutions
Summary: This paper investigates whether generative AI is responsible for the recent decline in early-career hiring. Using data on 243 million hires and 407 million job postings across four countries, the authors compare the effects of GenAI exposure and remote work exposure. While each appears associated with reduced junior hiring when examined separately, joint analysis shows that working-from-home exposure remains a strong predictor, whereas the estimated effect of GenAI largely disappears. The findings suggest remote work, rather than AI, is the primary driver of declining entry-level opportunities.
Authors: Madison Arnsbarger, Andreas Ferrara, Paige Montrose
Theme: Global Economic History
Summary: This paper examines how labor market participation can facilitate the political mobilization of underrepresented groups, focusing on the wives and daughters of disabled Union Army veterans after the U.S. Civil War. Linking military and census records, it finds that women in affected households were more likely to enter the workforce. Areas with greater female labor force participation and higher concentrations of disabled veterans saw more Temperance Crusade activism, suggesting that economic participation helped enable collective political action among women.
806 Intergenerational Transmission of VictimizationLink opens in a new window
Authors: Sonia Bhalotra, N. Meltem Daysal, Mathias Fjællegaard Jensen, Thomas H. Jørgensen, Sébastien Montpetit
Theme: Gender, Health and Wellbeing
Summary: This paper examines the intergenerational transmission of violent crime victimization using four decades of Danish administrative data. It finds that children whose parents were victims are substantially more likely to experience violent victimization themselves, with stronger effects when the mother was victimized. Socioeconomic and family characteristics explain much, but not all, of this relationship. The association is weaker in higher-income families and disappears for daughters. The study also links parental victimization to reduced intergenerational income mobility among children.
Authors: Kris James Mitchener, Mathieu Pedemonte
Theme: Responsive Public Policy
Summary: This paper examines the economic effects of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act using newly digitized monthly import and tariff data. It finds that imports subject to tariff increases declined sharply, with a one-percentage-point tariff rise reducing imports by an average of 4 percent. The study shows that U.S. importers bore most of the tariff burden and attributes the high trade elasticity partly to fixed exchange rates. Model estimates suggest Smoot-Hawley caused 27 percent of the import decline and reduced welfare by about 0.2 percent of GDP.
Authors: Carlo Ciccarelli, Gianni Marciante
Theme: Global Economic History
Summary: This paper examines the role of women’s education in Italy’s historical fertility transition between 1881 and 1921. Using original district-level panel data, it exploits variation in proximity to early female teacher-training colleges established under the 1859 Casati Law as an instrumental variable for women’s education. The findings show that increased female education reduced fertility rates, with effects operating through improved health knowledge and the greater economic independence represented by women entering the teaching profession.
Authors: Carla Salvo, Jacob Weisdorf
Theme: Global Economic History
Summary: This paper investigates the historical origins of Italy’s North–South economic divide using newly assembled data on ecclesiastical building activity as a proxy for regional development. The study identifies two pre-modern periods of economic prosperity in the 10th–13th and 15th–16th centuries, both disrupted by major plague outbreaks. The evidence suggests the regional gap emerged around 900 CE, when Northern Italy gained a lasting advantage, which was subsequently reinforced following Italian unification.
802 Information Shocks, Attitudes toward Immigrants, and Hate CrimeLink opens in a new window
Authors: Jake Bradley, Facundo Albornoz, Silvia Sonderegger, Jesús Rodríguez, Devesh Rustagi
Theme: Designing and Building Institutions
Summary: This paper examines how political events revealing anti-immigrant sentiment influence hate crimes in democratic societies. Focusing on two UK events, it finds that hate crimes rose most sharply in pro-immigrant areas rather than anti-immigrant ones. The study argues that xenophobic minorities in these areas experienced stronger belief shocks, updating their perceptions of the social acceptability of hate. The findings highlight how national information shocks and heterogeneous prior beliefs can amplify xenophobic behavior and social tensions.
801 The State-Contingent Debt Premium: Evidence from French Public BondsLink opens in a new window
Authors: Kris James Mitchener Gonçalo Pina
Theme: Global Economic History
Summary: This paper estimates the issuance and long-run pricing of state-contingent debt using a quasi-twin bond comparison of two French government bonds issued in 1956. One bond featured coupons linked to industrial production, allowing identification of the state-contingent debt premium. The study finds a higher expected yield at issuance, with realized premia amplified by strong economic growth. Over time, market prices reduced spreads to zero, though temporary shocks briefly increased them, suggesting limited long-term costs of such instruments.
800 Sticky GravityLink opens in a new window
Authors: Mario Larch, Leandro Navarro, and Dennis Novy
Theme: Designing and Building Institutions
Summary: This paper develops a structural dynamic gravity model to explain the persistence of international trade flows. It shows that persistence arises from firms’ sluggish adjustment of destination-specific prices, providing a micro-founded rationale for including lagged trade flows in gravity equations. The authors propose a novel estimation approach accounting for this dynamic feature. Empirically, they demonstrate that ignoring persistence leads to understated effects of trade policy, with the estimated impact of regional trade agreements increasing by 30% or more.
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