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Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective

Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective

297/2016 Nicholas Crafts and Terence C. Mills
economic history, working papers
European Review of Economic History
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hew020

297/2016 Nicholas Crafts and Terence C. Mills

This paper provides a time-series analysis of recent annual estimates of real GDP and industrial output covering 1270 to 1913. We show that growth can be regarded as a segmented trend stationary process. On this basis, we find that trend growth of real GDP per person was zero prior to the 1660s but then experienced two significant accelerations, pre- and post-industrial revolution. We also find that the hallmark of the industrial revolution is a substantial increase in the trend rate of growth of industrial output rather than being an episode of difference stationary growth.

Economic History

European Review of Economic History

http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hew020