The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany
The Political Effects of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Weimar Germany
666/2023 Stefan Bauernschuster, Matthias Blum, Erik Hornung, Christoph Koenig
How do health crises affect election results? We combine a panel of election results from 1893–1933 with spatial heterogeneity in excess mortality due to the 1918 Influenza to assess the pandemic’s effect on voting behavior across German constituencies. Applying a dynamic differences-in-differences approach, we find that areas with higher influenza mortality saw a lasting shift towards left-wing parties. We argue that pandemic intensity increased the salience of public health policy, prompting voters to reward parties signaling competence in health issues. Alternative explanations such as pandemic-induced economic hardship, punishment of incumbents for inadequate policy responses, or polarization of the electorate towards more extremist parties are not supported by our findings.
Economy History
The Social Science Research Network
https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4503047