Do petrol retailers “price gouge” during oil price spikes?

Johannes Brinkmann, Nikhil Datta

On 28th February 2026, the United States launched Operation "Epic Fury", attacking Iran in a coordinated effort with Israel. This unsurprisingly had large impacts on global oil prices, as it disrupted a key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil production passes. Brent crude oil prices spiked almost immediately, increasing from $72 per barrel at the close of 27th February to $103 per barrel at the close of 13th March. Amid concerns about the cost to consumers, the Chancellor asked the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) to remain on "high alert" for profiteering by petrol retailers, warning that she "will not tolerate any company exploiting the current situation to make excess profits at consumers' expense". In response, the Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), which represents approximately 65% of UK forecourts, argued that such language was "incorrect and inflammatory". This raises a broader question: what does the economic evidence suggest about the behaviour of petrol retailers during periods of oil price changes?

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