Small Boats, Big Impacts: The Ripple Effects of Irregular Migration

757/2025 Apurav Bhatiya, Shanta Kadam

This paper examines how highly visible irregular migration influences immigration attitudes. Using high-frequency data on small boat crossings from 2018 to 2024 linked with British Election Study panel data, we exploit variation in survey timing to identify short-term effects. Recent arrivals reduce support for immigration, especially among right-leaning media consumers. Left-leaning media can offset these effects, but only among respondents with low baseline concern. Perceived increases in immigration reinforce these patterns, consistent with confirmation bias. Small but salient events can disproportionately shape public sentiment through media framing and prior beliefs, helping explain recent policy tightening, even toward legal migration routes.

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