Patriarchal Norms and Missing Girls: Evidence from the Unintended Consequences of Chinese Reforms

823/2026 Yi Min, Robert J.R. Elliott, Eric Melander

In this paper we document how deep-seated cultural norms result in unintended demographic responses to two reforms in China: (1) the One-Child Policy and (2) land reform under the Household Responsibility System. Constructing and validating an index of historical patriarchal norms based on soil suitability for plough use and combining this with fertility and sex ratio data, we estimate the heterogeneous impacts of the reforms in a difference-in-differences framework. Results show that in counties characterised by strong patriarchy, where son preference is plausibly higher, families with a firstborn girl resisted population control and saw smaller decreases in second-child fertility after the implementation of the One-Child Policy. Moreover, land reform heightened the male-bias in the second-child sex ratio among firstborn-girl families, resulting in approximately 0.89 million missing girls in high-patriarchy counties as a result of norms-induced sex selection. Our results reveal an enduring legacy of historical norms and the importance of cultural forces as drivers of gender (in)equality.

Global Economic History