CRETA Theory Seminar - Pablo Schenone
Title: Causality: a Decision-Theoretic Foundation
Abstract: We propose a decision-theoretic model akin to that of Savage that is useful for defining causal effects. Within this framework, we define what it means for a decision maker (DM) to act as if the relation between two variables is causal. Next, we provide axioms on preferences that are equivalent to the existence of a (unique) directed acyclic graph (DAG) that represents the DM's preferences. The notion of representation has two components: the graph factorizes the conditional independence properties of the DM's subjective beliefs, and arrows point from cause to effect. Finally, we explore the connection between our representation and models used in the statistical causality literature (for example, that of Pearl).