Research on the ‘wisdom of crowds’ has consistently shown that one way to improve the accuracy of numeric estimates such as economic forecasting is by using the average estimate of multiple individual contributors, rather than relying on one single person. However, decades of lab experiments have produced contradictory results about whether and when communication between group members makes the resulting average more accurate or less accurate. Thus despite the existence of over 100k results on Google scholar using the “Delphi method” form of information exchange, we lack clear evidence that this method is actually better than unstructured discussion, or that any form of communication is better than none. This talk will use a formal model of opinion exchange to explain contradictions in prior research by showing why communication sometimes increases accuracy and sometimes decreases accuracy. I will conclude by discussing some limitations of this model for describing true deliberation, sharing some new research under development, and invite collaborative discussion on how future research might address these topics.

Zoom Invitation

Meeting ID: 998 5861 2295

Passcode: 430277