Agustin will discuss his paper : "On the Dynamics of History Dependent Self-Control Preferences"

Title of paper: The Death and Life of Great British Cities.

Organisers: Bishnupriya Gupta and Claudia Rei

This seminar is joint with Bristol University and Warwick will be hosting today's event.

Title: The Returns to Viral Media: The Case of US Campaign Contributions (with Johannes Böken, Arianna Ornaghi and Nicola Mastrorocco)

Abstract: This paper provides estimates of the impact of social media attention on US campaign contributions. Our setting is a daily dataset of campaign contributions and Twitter activity for Members of Congress over the 2019-2020 period. Our average elasticity of 0.01 for the Contributions-Likes relationship is driven entirely by the top tail (90th percentile and above) of `viral' Tweets. In turn, both negative sentiment and member ideology are strong predictors of virality. The relationship with regard to ideology is U-shaped - members on the far right and far left systematically receive more Likes relative to those in the middle. As part of our identification strategy, we develop a `news pressure' strategy based on the overlap of followers between political and non-political media accounts on the network.

Title: Berlinguer, I Love You (Still): The Downstream Effects of Expressive Voting, joint with Elias Dinas (EUI)

 Abstract: What is the effect of a vote cast on expressive grounds on subsequent political behaviour? Theories of voting distinguish between instrumental and expressive motives behind voting, but their long-term partisan implications remain largely ignored. We delve into this question by focusing on a rare instance of expressive voting: support for the Italian Communist Party (PCI) in the 1984 EP election, marked by the death of PCI’s charismatic leader, Enrico Berlinguer, only six days prior to the poll day. PCI became the most voted party, for the first time in its history. Are votes cast on expressive grounds more likely to remain within the party and its ideological domain? If so, did such effect persist after PCI dismissed its brand? Using the difference in the vote share for PCI between 1979 and 1984, we obtain a municipal measure of empathy-based support for the party. We find that the change in PCI votes predicts future vote for the left, even after PCI is dismantled in 1991. We also instrument vote for Berlinguer in 1984 through the district (Lazio, Marche, Tuscany and Umbria) in which he ran both in 79 and 84 (i.e., after his death). People in this area had an additional motivation to vote for PCI, i.e., to actually cast a ballot for the deceased leader. Using such distinction as an instrument for the “Berlinguer vote”, we find that expressive vote generates a long-term loyalty to the left. A closer look into the exact party trajectories reveals a larger effect for radical left-wing alternatives.

Location: Teams (Please find the link below)

https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3aeafd670486bc4ed6be08da79cf05d9ca%40thread.tacv2/1644956120914?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%2209bacfbd-47ef-4465-9265-3546f2eaf6bc%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%22282d13eb-4c12-413a-b24a-e55af45e44c1%22%7dLink opens in a new window

Title: The Use of Robotic Players in Online Games

Abstract: Short in-class games have become an increasingly common way to teach a range of key concepts and theories in economics. These allow students to gain first-hand experience of incentives and the impact on decision making. This makes it easier for tutors to convey underlying economic theory and the implications of the resulting predictions. However, moving to an online environment presents a number of challenges for using this method of interactive teaching. In particular, the widespread adoption of asynchronous activities provides students with greater flexibility over the timing of their studies but also means that students cannot play interactive games against one another.

An alternative is to run games in which students play against robotic players that make decisions according to some pre-programmed rules. This greatly increase the possibility of using online games asynchronously. However, as it stands very little is known about how this affects student learning. The aim of this research was to investigate how student perceptions and behaviour change when robotic players are used. In a series of different treatments, we varied whether students knowingly or unknowingly played an online Prisoner’s Dilemma game against other students or robotic players. We then tested how this affected the students’ decisions in each round of the game and used pre and post questionnaires to measure their perceptions of the game.

First, we find that perceptions of the game were similar across all treatments. Students typically found the game to be fun to play, helped them to understand economic theories and represented real-world situations. In addition, we asked the students about their perceptions of greed both before and immediately after playing the game. We find that a significant change occurred as a result of playing the game only for students that played against a robot and knew that they were doing so. These students became less averse to greed after the game. This suggests that the in-game experience and perceptions of this may influence student learning outcomes from playing in-class games.

Then, to investigate further, we examined the in-game decision making for each of the treatments across each round of the game. We find that cooperation in a given round of the game was more likely for female students, those that had not studied economics before and students doing a pure economics degree. Furthermore, the likelihood of cooperation was unaffected if students played against a robot but didn’t know that this was the case. However, cooperation was significantly less likely when students knew that they were playing against a robot. We then show that this is in-part driven by students in this treatment being more willing to deviate in the next round having established cooperation with their robot opponent in the previous round.

Overall, our findings indicate that knowingly playing in-class games against robotic players can influence in-game decision making and this in turn can influence learning outcomes from playing the game. This suggests care needs to be taken in using robotic players in online games.

This is a hybrid seminar via MS Teams - Click here to join the meetingLink opens in a new window

Title: Caution and Reference Effects (with Simone Cerreia-Vioglio and David Dillenberger)

Title: Overkill, extinction and the Neolithic Revolution

Via Zoom Link: https://monash.zoom.us/j/82838864348?pwd=OFN0RzVrK3RJRjFrdDhSbXd1ZDIzQT09

Title to be advised

Title - Rationality of Decisions That Avoid Predictably Regrettable Consequences (in working progress)

Abstract - A novel characterization of rationality is offered which relies on the hypothesis that under no predictable circumstances should behaviour in any finite decision tree ever lead to a consequence which, relative to the predicted feasible set F, belongs to a specified subset R(F) of regrettable consequences. The hypothesis is applied to behaviour that is defined on an unrestricted domain of finite decision trees, including continuation subtrees, with:

(i) decision nodes where the decision maker must make a move;

(ii) chance nodes at which a “roulette lottery” with exogenously specified strictly positive probabilities is resolved;

(iii) event nodes at which a “horse lottery” is resolved.

Building on earlier discussions of consequentialist behaviour, the hypothesis is shown to imply that behaviour must maximize a complete and transitive preference relation over consequence lotteries, with preferences that satisfy the independence axiom of expected utility theory, as well as a strict form of Anscombe and Aumann's extension of Savage's sure thing principle. Assuming continuity, non-trivial consequence domains, and a generalized form of state independence, the hypothesis is equivalent to a refined form of Bayesian rationality that excludes zero probabilities.

The Paradox of Choice in Philanthropic Giving

Title: Disentangling other-regarding preferences from moral concerns in the 'lemons problem' with Ingela Alger (TSE-IAST)

Title:

Title: New Developments in Causal Inference with Panel Data.

This is part of 2^nd year MRes module and could be of interest to the research group as Yiqing's presentation is partly based on his new research.

The meeting is via zoom  https://turing-uk.zoom.us/j/94621198343?pwd=L3djU01uSW8xVnFsZml1VitXS0tmUT09Link opens in a new window

If you would like to meet with Yiqing, please let Mingli know.

Informal discussion of PEPE research ideas — all students and faculty welcome!

The Department of Economics is delighted to welcome Meredith A. Crowley as our next 360 Guest Lecture speaker for the 2021/22 academic year.

The Future of Trade in the Post-Pandemic World

Date: Monday 7 March 2022, 6.15-7.15pm
Location: OC0.03

Dr Christian Soegaard will introduce the speaker and chair the Q&A session at the end of the lecture

This event is for staff and students only and registration is required in order to attend. First year students who attend the lecture will be able to get PDM points.

About the Talk

This lecture will examine developments in world trade and the world trading system over the last 10-15 years, with a special focus on major changes that hit the system in the late teens: Covid, the US-China trade war and Brexit. It will examine how problems and dissatisfaction with the world trading system developed and what this means for the future of goods and services trade around the world.

About the author - Meredith A.Crowley

Meredith A. Crowley is a Professor of International Economics and Fellow of St. John’s College at the University of Cambridge. She is a Senior Fellow of the think tank UK in a Changing Europe (UKCE), a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR - London), and a member of an academic advisory panel at the UK Department for International Trade. Her research focuses on international trade, multinational trade agreements, and trade policy. Dr. Crowley received her MPP from Harvard University and her PhD in Economics from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Photography

Please note photography will be taking place at this event which may be used for marketing purposes (e.g. promotional materials). If you do not wish to be photographed, please inform the photographer on the day.

Registration

Please complete the following form with your details as registration is mandatory. Registration will close at 12 noon on the day.

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Title: Beggar-thy-neighbor environmental policy? Evidence from California’s Truck and Bus Regulation 

Joint with Fiona Burlig, Michael Greenstone, Olga Rostapshova

Abstract: Incomplete environmental regulation can threaten or even reverse regulatory benefits through two channels. First, regulated actors, facing new costs, may attempt to evade the regulation entirely. Second, regulations can cause emissions “leakage:” an increase in emissions in a foreign jurisdiction in response to a new domestic regulation. We study these channels in the context of the California Truck and Bus Regulation (TBR). Transportation is a major contributor to particulate matter pollution, the greatest threat to human health globally. The goal of the TBR is to reduce emissions by requiring that trucks driving in California have relatively new, and thus clean, engines. The stringency of the regulation has increased over time. We leverage TBR’s phased-in rollout and extensive registration data in a difference-in-differences analysis to study the effects of TBR on leakage. Preliminary results suggest that TBR had a substantial impact on vehicle de-registration, especially for older trucks. To assess the extent of evasion, we use twenty-seven million records of random inspections from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration to identify trucks who still drive in the state despite de-registering.

Search Costs, Intermediation, and Trade: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Agricultural Markets

with Lauren Bergquist and Meredith Startz.

Abstract:

Search costs may be a barrier to market integration in developing countries, harming both producers and consumers. We present evidence from the large-scale experimental rollout of a mobile phone-based marketplace intended to reduce search costs for agricultural commodities in Uganda. We find that market integration improves substantially: trade increases and excess price dispersion falls by 20% between treated markets. This reflects price convergence across relative surplus and deficit markets, with no change on average. Interpreting the experimental variation through the lens of a model with fixed costs of search, we estimate that the marketplace caused a 5% reduction in total trade costs between treated markets. Contrary to the stated goals of the marketplace, but consistent with the existence of economies of scale in search or other trade costs, almost all activity on the platform is among larger traders, with very little use by smallholder farmers. Nevertheless, the benefits of improved arbitrage by traders appears to pass through to farmers in the form of higher revenues in surplus markets, as trader entry increases and measured trader profits decrease in response to falling search costs.

In celebration of International Women's Day we're delighted to invite 16-18 year olds to attend our free virtual event "Coffee with Economists".

Date: Tuesday 8 March 2022
Time: 17:30 - 18:30 (UK Time)
Location: Microsoft Teams, Online

Pop the kettle on and join an informal and inclusive virtual discussion with a panel of distinguished economists as we celebrate International Women's Day 2022.

Covid-19 has drawn attention to the work of economists, however misconceptions around the subject and the stereotypical career opportunities associated with it still exist.

Designed for 16-18 year olds, this event will help students to find out more about economics as a subject and discover the range of career opportunities available to them. The panel of female economists will share:

• Their experience of studying economics at university
• The key transferable skills they think are important for studying economics
• Their current role and what it involves

There will also be an opportunity for the audience to put their questions to the panel.

Chair

Dr Lory Barile, Associate Professor of Economics

Dr Lory Barile is an Associate Professor of Economics in the Department of Economics, University of Warwick. Lory is also Widening Participation Academic Lead, Director of Postgraduate Taught Studies, Co-chair of the Students' Progression Working Group and Member of the Athena Swan Department Committee in the Department.

Lory is also the Discover Economics Champion at Warwick which is a national campaign led by the Royal Economics Society to increase diversity amongst economic students.

Panel

Dr Maureen Paul (PhD Economics 2004) - Interim Chief Economic Advisor at Ofgem

Maureen Paul is the Interim Chief Economic Advisor at Ofgem, ensuring that Ofgem’s decisions are supported by robust analysis. Maureen is passionate about making the energy markets work in the interest of existing and future energy consumers and have been working at Ofgem to do so since 2013.

Maureen oversees the policy and analytical work of Ofgem’s Office for Research and Economics, with around 30 multidisciplinary members of staff – economists, social researchers, behavioural scientists and policy experts, with wider leadership responsibilities for over 60 economists. Maureen has responsibility for advising on Ofgem’s biggest priorities, including network price regulation, charges for the use of Great Britain’s energy networks, and retail and wholesale energy market issues.

Achieving real change with regards to greater diversity and inclusion is an important part of Maureen’s leadership. She co-chairs Ofgem’s ethnic diversity staff network and has responsibilities for helping the organisation identify and put in place policies that promote inclusion, equality and diversity within our workforce. Before joining Ofgem, Maureen worked with the Competition Commission and the Office of Fair Trading on several market studies, Competition Act cases and mergers cases. She has a PhD in economics from the University of Warwick.

Anesha Seennapen - Third Year, BSc Economics

Anesha is a third year economics student at Warwick. She came from Mauritius, a culturally diverse country and my time at Warwick has definitely matched that. She had the opportunity to be involved with many different societies and by far her favourite has been Warwick Women in Economics. She was the events officer last year and for 2022 she is acting secretary. She very much enjoys working with the girls and studying economics at Warwick allows her to be involved in different projects and opportunities.

Isabelle Tomova - Second Year, International Management

Isabelle is a second-year International Management student at the University of Warwick. Originally from Bulgaria, she left her home country at the age of 17 to pursue her studies at United World College Changshu China after winning a full merit-based scholarship. There, she attended discussions and events with corporate representatives, which sparked her interest in economics and finance. At the University of Warwick, she has been involved with extra-curricular activities as part of the executive team of Warwick Women in Economics Society and Warwick Women’s Careers Society. Isabelle is passionate about sustainability and female empowerment.

Nur Batrisya Fathima - Final Year, BSc Economics

Batrisya is a final year BSc Economics Student. From Malaysia she is the first female in her family to go to university. She is passionate about Gender Economics which has led her to choose it as her Dissertation topic.

Registration

Registration for the event is essential. Registrants will receive an email the week of the event containing a link and instructions of how to join. If you have any queries about this event, please email economics.admissions@warwick.ac.uk. 

Please also note that our Widening Participation and Outreach Team are running other events of this kind this term and we will provide details of them on our homepage.

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Title to be advised.

Nick Scholz presenting "A continuous time health mechanism without money ". The seminar will be online only via MS Teams.

MS Teams: Meeting scheduled in the Microeconomics Channel

Title: Campaign messages, polling, and elections: theory and experimental evidence, and this is joint work with Nicholas Feltovich (Monash).

Sarthak Joshi will present “Directed Acyclical Graphs: What are they good for?”

The meeting will be hybrid: teams link

Disentangling other-regarding preferences from moral concerns in the 'lemons problem'. With Ingela Alger (TSE-IAST).

Title Efficient Risk Sharing and Separation join with Arpad Abraham

Elaheh will discuss her research idea on gender bias

Speaker: Darshak Patel (University of Kentucky)

Chair: Parama Chaudhury (UCL)

This is a hybrid event:
Venue: UCL, Room 780, Bedford Way, UCL Institute of Education (London)
To attend online on Zoom register here
The event will be live-streamed on YouTube.

Organiser: Stefania Paredes Fuentes