Emeritus Professor

Former Director of ESRC Research Centre, CAGE: Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy

Research Interests

Historical experience of economic growth. Research topics include:

• The Industrial Revolution
• British relative economic decline
• The history of general purpose technologies
• Why growth rates differ.

Research and publications

Working papers

View my work my Working Papers

Recent Keynote Lectures

• AI as a GPT: An Historical Perspective, Bank of England/CEPR/Imperial College conference "The Impact of Machine Learning and AI on the UK Economy", March 2020
• Irish Fiscal Advisory Council’s third annual “Path for the Public Finances” conference, Dublin, February 2019: “The Future Growth Path for Europe and Ireland” 
• International Atlantic Economic Conference, Berlin, March 2017"Is slow Growth the 'New Normal'for Europe?, Robert Mundell Lecture"  

  The lecture considered future European growth prospects in the light of a new productivity paradox, namely, the co-existence of a productivity slowdown and exciting new technologies.

• World Economic History Congress, Kyoto, August 2015: "Diversity and Economic Development"  
• The Third Angus Maddison Development Lecture OECD Headquarters Paris, July 2014: "Catching Up and Falling Behind: Lessons from 20th Century Growth"  

  The Lecture Series on Development in honour of Angus Maddison was launched in 2012, on the occasion of the OECD Development Centre's 50th Anniversary, and has since become a regular event of the Centre's Development Week. It aims to commemorate Angus Maddison, a renowned scholar on quantitative macroeconomic history and one of the founding fathers of the OECD Development Centre whose work has greatly influenced the development policy debate.

• Maddison lecture at the University of Groningen, October 2013: Divergence Big Time: Geography Matters  

  This lecture examines the divergence in growth outcomes across the world since the Industrial Revolution. It argues that while economic historians are right to say that institutions matter they should also recognize the importance of the role geography has played especially through proximity to markets.

• David Hume Institute in Edinburgh, November 2013: What Kind of Supply-Side Policy for the UK? What Implications for Scotland? 

  This lecture reviews the role of supply-side policy in promoting stronger economic and better productivity performance. Specific aspects of policy where the UK could do better are identified including education, infrastructure, innovation, industrial and taxation policies. Then opportunities for Scotland to do things differently as an independent country are considered.

• Royal Economics Society Policy Lecture 2012: Returning To Growth: Lessons From History 

  In both the 1930s and the 1980s, the UK economy made strong recoveries from recessions very similar to the current one. What can we learn from those experiences for today’s top policy priority of a return to growth? Delivering the Royal Economic Society (RES) annual policy lecture in London on Wednesday 17 October 2012, Professor Crafts summarised the policy lessons from those decades that are relevant to kick-starting recovery now (Read more...)

• ICT as GPT This workshop, held between 11-12 April 2011, was the second of a series on the economic impact of ICT, organised by ICTNET and funded by the European Commission. The goal of the event was to bring together leading researchers in the economics of information and communication technologies (ICT) in order to discuss recent scientific contributions and outstanding policy challenges. Particular emphasis was placed on ICT, R&D and intangibles and ICT-enabled innovation.
• Maddison Memorial Lecture
  This conference, which took place in November 2010 was first memorial conference in honour of Angus Maddison, which took place at the International Institute of Social History, Amsterdam in November 2010. Angus Maddison was a world scholar on quantitative macroeconomic history, including the measurement and analysis of economic growth and development. He was professor at the University of Groningen from 1978 to 1997, and a founder of the Groningen Growth and Development Centre.

VoxEU Papers

• Brexit: Blame it on the banking crisis
• The changing geography of US manufacturing during the 20th century
• Slow productivity growth may not be the 'new normal' for the US
• Brexit: A new industrial strategy and rules on state aid
• Brexit: Lessons from history
• American productivity growth during the Great Depression
• US Cities and Productivity in the Railroad Era
• Walking wounded: The British economy in the aftermath of World War I
• The Eurozone: If only it were the 1930s
• Competing successfully in a globalising world: Lessons from Lancashire
• Escaping liquidity traps: Lessons from the UK’s 1930s escape
• The economic legacy of Mrs Thatcher
• Returning to growth in the UK: Policy lessons from history
• Saving the Eurozone: Is a ‘Real’ Marshall Plan the answer?
• Competition cured the “British disease”
• The Great Recession: An historical perspective
• A recession to remember: Lessons from the US, 1937–1938
• Want faster European growth? Learn to love creative destruction

Government Contributions

• BIS Economics Paper #6
  "Learning from some of Britain's successful sectors: A historical analysis of the role of governement

Podcasts

• Returning to Growth: Economic policy lessons from the 1930s and 1980s
  The Royal Economic Society Policy Lecture 2012
• Discussion with Tim Doberman (WIDS)
• For the Economic History Society
• The Ellen McArthur Lecture Series 2009

Policy Briefing Papers

• Is Secular Stagnation the Future of the Eurozone?
  For the CAGE-Warwick Brussels Series
• Saving the Euro: A Pyrrhic Victory?
  For the CAGE-Chatham House Policy Briefing Series
• ‘Saving the Eurozone: Is a ‘Real’ Marshall Plan the Answer?
  For the CAGE-Chatham House Policy Briefing Series
• Delivering growth while reducing deficits: lessons from the 1930s
  For CentreForum