Working Papers:

The Race between Population and Technology: Real Wages in the First Industrial Revolution
August 2020

British Relative Economic Decline in the Aftermath of German Unification
August 2020

Slow Real Wage Growth during the Industrial Revolution: Productivity Paradox or Pro-Rich Growth?
May 2020

The Pre-1914 UK Productivity Slowdown: A Reappraisal
August 2019

The Sources of British Economic Growth since the Industrial Revolution: Not the Same Old Story
July 2019

Is the UK Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?
July 2019

The Fall in UK Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: a Much Bigger Estimate
January 2019

The Postwar British Productivity Failure
November 2017

The Sources of Growth in a Technologically Progressive Economy: the United States, 1899-1941
September 2017

A Long-Run Perspective on the Spatial Concentration of Manufacturing Industries in the United States.
September 2017

Trend TFP Growth in the United States: Forecasts versus Outcomes
May 2017

Six Centuries of British Economic Growth: a Time-Series Perspective
August 2016

The Growth Effects of EU Membership for the UK: a Review of the Evidence
March 2016

A Vision of the Growth Process in a Technologically Progressive Economy: the United States, 1899-1941.
December 2015

Agglomeration Economies and Productivity Growth : U.S. Cities, 1880-1930
June 2015

Is Secular Stagnation the Future for Europe?
April 2015

West European Economic Integration since 1950: Implications for Trade and Income
February 2015

Industrialization: Why Britain Got There First
November 2014

Productivity Growth during the British Industrial Revolution: Revisionism Revisited
September 2014

Reducing High Public Debt Ratios: Lessons from UK Experience
August 2014

Industrial Policy for the Medium to Long-term
January 2014

Twentieth Century Growth
September 2013

The Location of the UK Cotton Textiles Industry in 1838: a Quantitative Analysis
August 2013

What Does the 1930s’ Experience Tell Us about the Future of the Eurozone?
July 2013

Geography and Intra-National Home Bias: U.S. Domestic Trade in 1949 and 2007
January 2013

Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy: Was There a ‘Free Lunch’ in 1930s’ Britain?
December 2012

UK Defence News, 1920-1938: Estimates Based on Contemporary Sources
October 2012

Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain
October 2012 (with Terence C Mills)

Creating Competitive Advantage: Policy Lessons from History
June 2012

Western Europe’s Growth Prospects: an Historical Perspective
January 2012

The Golden Age and the Second Globalization in Italy
October 2011 (with Marco Magnani)

Economic History Matters
October 2011

The Marshall Plan: A Reality Check
August 2011

British Relative Economic Decline Revisited
May 2011

Openness, protectionism and Britain's productivity performance over the long run
December 2010

Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression
September 2010 (with Peter Fearon)

Explaining the First Industrial Revolution: Two Views
July 2010

The Contribution of New Technology to Economic Growth: Lessons from Economic History
March 2010

The Celtic Tiger In Historical And International Perspective
September 2008

How Good was the Profitability of British Railways, 1870-1912?
June 2008 (With Brian Mitchell, David Chambers)