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PAIS seminar series: Ismene Gizelis, University of Essex, "United Nations Effectiveness and Rebel Fragmentation"

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Location: S1.50

Abstract: UN peacekeeping operations (PKOs) function as an important conflict resolution mechanism by alleviating commitment problems between belligerents. The literature also suggests that peace processes can influence the internal cohesion of non-state actors engaging in civil conflict. Actor fragmentation in civil conflicts exacerbates commitment problems both during and after the conflict. As a result, rebel fragmentation increases conflict duration and the likelihood of recurrence. Although there are empirical and theoretical reasons to expect that rebel group fragmentation might occur because of the peace process, so far there is limited research on whether rebel fragmentation impacts UN involvement. Here we argue that the size of UN deployment impacts the “cost” of rebel fragmentation and, thus, the desire of rebel groups to sustain internal cohesion. On other hand, UN might be less willing to get involved in cases of highly fragmented conflicts. We assess our theoretical claims by using data on peace processes and UN involvement in civil conflicts. We adopt two approaches to investigate the moderating effect of UN intervention on rebel fragmentation. First, we look at conflict duration by including all conflicts in the UCDP data for the period 1946-2013. Then, we use as dependent variable battle related deaths in African civil conflicts from 1992 to 2011. We expect that in highly fragmented conflicts UN PKO presence will reduce the duration and tension.

Ismene Gizelis is professor at the Department of Government in the University of Essex. Her main research interests are in conflict dynamics, peacekeeping, gender equality and post-conflict reconstruction, and communicable diseases. She has published in journals such as the British Journal of Political Science, Conflict Management and Peace Science, Cooperation and Conflict, International Interactions, International Organization, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Journal of Peace Research, Political Geography, Social Science and Medicine, and World Development. She has a book with Manchester University Press (2010) on Globalization, Integration, and the Future of European Welfare States. She was the guest co-editor (together with Louise Olsson) of International Interactions (2013) on “A Systematic Understanding of Gender, Peace and Security – Implementing UNSCR 1325.” She also co-edited with Louise Olsson the Routledge book (2015) A Systematic Understanding of Gender, Peace and Security: Implementing UNSCR 1325. She is the Program Co-Chair for the ISA 2018 Annual Meeting, has served in ISA committees, and has served as Treasurer and Board Member for the ISA section Political Demography and Geography. She has also been involved in the management of professional associations in the UK and served in committees in the Peace Science Society. She currently serves or has served in the editorial boards of Foreign Policy Analysis, International Interactions, International Peacekeeping, International Studies Quarterly, and Journal of Peace Research. She is the recipient of a small BA grant (2015); British Academy Mid-Career Fellowship (2012-2013), the ESRC Research Grant: RES-000-22-4306 under the Small Grants Scheme (2010), and the BISA - C-SAP Teaching Award for Excellence in Teaching International Studies (2010/2011). She was also part of the research grant Armed Conflict and Maternal Health in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2016, (Funded by Research Council of Norway; Lead PI: Gudrun Østby, PRIO, Norway)

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