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Publications

Forthcoming

2005

Miler, M., Castren, O., and Zhang, L., Capital Flows and the US 'New Economy' - Consumption Smoothign and Risk Exposure, Working Paper Series 459, European Central Bank, 2005

Miller, M., and Zhang, L., World Finance and the US 'New Ecoomy' risj Sharing and Risk Exposure, CEPR Discussion papers 4855, January 2005

Garcia Fronti, J., Miller, M., and Zhang, L., Credi Crunch and Keynesian Contracion: Argentina in Crisi, CEPR Discussions Papers, 4889, January 2005

“Learning to Trust Lula: Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil” (with Marcus Miller and Kannika Thampanishvong). In F. Giavazzi, I. Goldfajn and S. Herrera (eds) Inflation Targeting, Debt, and the Brazilian Experience, 1999 to 2003 (forthcoming 2005) MIT Press.

2004

“World Finance and the US "New Economy": welfare efficiency and moral hazard" (with Olli Castren and Marcus Miller) Mimeo.

"Credit Crunch and Keynesian Contraction: Argentina in crisis" (with Javier Garcia Fronti and Marcus Miller) Mimeo.

2003

“Sovereign Liquidity Crises: the Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill” (with Marcus Miller, Reprinted). In Vinod Aggarwal and Brigitte Granville (eds.): Sovereign Debt: Origins, Crises and Restructurings. London: Chatham House, 2003, pp. 152-198. ISBN 1-86203-145-2.

“Learning to forget? Contagion and political risk in Brazil” (with Marcus Miller and Kannika Thampanishvong). Warwick University/ESRC Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation Working Papers, no. 113/03, February 2003. CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 3785 (March 2003).

2002

“Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Analysing the ‘Greenspan Put’” (with Marcus Miller and Paul Weller). Economic Journal, vol. 112, March 2002, pp.171-86.

“Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Evidence” (with Luisa Corrado and Marcus Miller) CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3337 (April 2002).

“Sovereign Default by Argentina: ‘Slow Motion Train Crash’ or Self-fulfilling Crisis?” (with Javier Fronti and Marcus Miller). CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 3399 (May 2002).

2001

“Sequencing of capital account liberalisation: A challenge to the Washington consensus” (Marcus Miller). In D. Dasgupta, M. Uzan, D. Wilson (eds) Capital Flows without Crisis? Reconciling Capital Mobility and Economic Stability, London: Routledge, May 2001. ISBN 0-415254795

“Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: The Idea of a 'Greenspan Put'” (with Marcus Miller and Paul Weller) CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 3041 (November 2001).

“Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Analysing the ‘Greenspan put’” (with Marcus Miller and Paul Weller) Warwick University/ESRC Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation Working Papers, no. 83/01, November 2001.