The four broad research themes
- Research theme #1: The politics of constructing economic performance assessment
- Research theme #2: Piloting economic policy under conditions of pervasive uncertainty
- Research theme #3: Brexit, UK economic growth and the British model of capitalism
- Research theme #4: Brexit and UK's economic growth in the public debate
Specific research questions
Government policy and economic shocks - what impact on actual and potential growth?
What assumptions does the OBR make about effects of government policy (and shocks like the global financial crisis, or Brexit) on actual and potential growth?
OBR growth forecasts and political debate on austerity
How have OBR growth forecasts shaped UK party-political debates about austerity?
Growth forecasts crucially mediate the politics of austerity through their implications for the tax take, and in assumptions they make about effects of government policy (and shocks like the GFC or Brexit) on actual and potential growth.
OBR and pervasive uncertainty
How do the the OBR deal with pervasive uncertainty?
The project assesses the strengths and weaknesses of each growth evaluation approach, paying particular attention to the assumptions they make, how uncertainty is taken into account.