The four broad research themes
- Research theme #1: The politics of constructing economic performance assessment
- Research theme #2: Piloting economic policy under conditions of pervasive uncertainty
- Research theme #3: Brexit, UK economic growth and the British model of capitalism
- Research theme #4: Brexit and UK's economic growth in the public debate
Specific research questions
The Global Financial Crisis and impact on the UK's growth trajectory
How did the global financial crisis alter the UK’s growth trajectory?
A decade on, policy-makers are still getting to grips with how hard the 2007-8 crisis hit the UK economy and its growth potential and trajectory.
Government policy and economic shocks - what impact on actual and potential growth?
What assumptions does the OBR make about effects of government policy (and shocks like the global financial crisis, or Brexit) on actual and potential growth?
OBR growth forecasts and political debate on austerity
How have OBR growth forecasts shaped UK party-political debates about austerity?
Growth forecasts crucially mediate the politics of austerity through their implications for the tax take, and in assumptions they make about effects of government policy (and shocks like the GFC or Brexit) on actual and potential growth.
The construction of UK growth prospects
How are UK growth prospects constructed?
Are Government policy options opened up or closed off by particular renderings of Britain’s growth trajectory and their assumptive foundations (notably about Brexit effects)?
OBR to gauge impact of Brexit on UK growth and economy
How can the OBR gauge Brexit’s impact on UK growth and the economy?
The impacts of Brexit on potential output, investment, trade, FDI and productivity will remain highly uncertain, even in hindsight. The judgement of prospective path for potential output is always surrounded by 'considerable uncertainty', to which 'uncertainties associated with the UK’s exit from the EU are likely to add’.