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Current Projects

Professor James Mitchell

Head of Group James Mitchell - Professor of Economic Modelling and Forecasting

Probability forecasting and forecast combination

The modelling and forecasting of economic and financial variables in probabilistic terms, in the face of uncertainties. This research aims to produce density forecasts robust to a constantly changing economic environment. This work has been supported by the ESRC and the Bank Of England.

Nowcasting

A wide range of both statistical and small-scale structural models are used for short-term “real-time” forecasting (including nowcasting), revisions analysis and “business cycle” analysis. Business cycle analysis involves using econometrics and economic theory, to varying degrees, to isolate from a time-series its “trend” component. Other work includes: (a) the production of monthly GDP estimates, from published quarterly data, using interpolation methods and (b) the use of panel qualitative survey data . The aim is to produce (and then evaluate) data of practical interest to policymakers and business using both cutting-edge econometric methods and richer data sources.

The interaction between the global economy and the energy industry

The use and application of scenarios and forecasts in the global energy industry.

 Regional economic data

The production and evaluation of improved and more timely regional economic data. This work is in cooperation with the West Midlands Economic Forum.

 Migration

This work develops panel-data econometric models to examine the determinants of and forecast international migration.