No.	Date	Title of Working Paper	Author(s)
18	March 2018	Risk Premia and Seasonality in Commodity Futures	Constantino Hevia, Ivan Petrella and Martin Sola
17	February 2018	Credit Conditions and the Effects of Economic Shocks: Amplification and Asymmetries	Andrea Carriero, Ana Beatriz Galvao and Massimiliano Marcellino
16	November 2017	Gibrat's Law and Quantile Regressions: and Application to Firm Growth	Roberta Distante, Ivan Petrella and Emiliano Santoro
15	March 2017	Monetary Policy with Sectoral Trade-offs	Ivan Petrella, Raffaele Rossi and Emiliano Santoro
14	November 2016	Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails with an Application to Inflation Forecasting	Davide Delle Monache and Ivan Petrella
13	September 2016 (updated January 2017)	News and Uncertainty Shocks	Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia and Ana Beatriz Galvao
12	August 2016	Data Revisions and DSGE Models	Ana Beatriz Galvao
11	August 2016	A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods	Andrea Carriero, Ana Beatriz Galvao and George Kapetanios
10	April 2016	News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Comment	Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia
9	March 2016	What univariate models tell us about multivariate macroeconomic models (latest version)	James Mitchell, Donald Robertson and Stephen Wright
8	November 2015	Assessing the Economic Value of Probabilistic Forecasts in the Presence of an Inflation Target	Christopher McDonald, Craig Thamotheram, Shaun P. Vahey and Elizabeth C. Wakerly
7	April 2014	Probability Forecasting for Inflation Warnings from the Federal Reserve	Anthony Garratt, James Mitchell and Shaun P. Vahey
6	February 2014	Probablistic Prediction of the US Great Recession with Historical Expert	Patrick J. Coe and Shaun P. Vahey
5	December 2013	Generalised Density Forecast Combinations	Nicholas Fawcett, George Kapetanios, James Mitchell and Simon Price
4	October 2013	Economic Sentiment, International Interdependence and Output Dynamics in the G7	Anthony Garratt, Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields
3	September 2013	A Nonlinear Panel Data Model of Cross-Sectional Dependence	George Kapetanios, James Mitchell and Yongcheol Shin
2	July 2013	The Recalibrated and Copula Opinion Pools	James Mitchell
1	April 2013	Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty	Anthony Garratt, James Mitchell and Shaun Vahey