Forecast Uncertainty - its measurement and representation
The lecture series commemorates the contributions to economic statistics of Sir Richard Stone (1913-1991), founding director of the Department of Applied Economics at Cambridge University. He was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1984, for having made fundamental contributions to the development of systems of national accounts and hence having greatly improved the basis for empirical economic analysis.
"Forecast uncertainty" by Professor Kenneth F. Wallis, University of Warwick
Forecast Uncertainty - its measurement and representation
Date and time: 5pm - 6pm, 17th October
Venue: The Bank of England
Target audience: general professional economists, graduate students, teachers
It is now generally recognised that a point forecast is seldom sufficient for well-informed decision-making in the face of an uncertain future, and that it needs to be supplemented with some indication of the degree of uncertainty. The lecture surveys the different ways in which economic forecasters measure and report uncertainty. Official agencies appearing in the survey include the UK Treasury and the Bank of England, and other agencies in the Netherlands and the United States. The lecture also considers measures of disagreement among forecasters, and reports a recent study of the Bank of England's Survey of External Forecasters.
Registration
There is no charge to attend these seminars. If you would like to register to attend, please contact Pat Shaw with your name, title and organisation:
email: p.shaw@niesr.ac.uk
telephone: 020 7222 7665