Research » Calendar

30/04 2:30pm-3:45pm: DR@W Forum: Marc Kaufmann (CEU)

John Taylor — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 11:33:18 GMT

When: 2:30pm - 3:45pm, Thu, 30 Apr '26

Where: WBS 1.003

Details TBC

07/05 2:30pm-3:45pm: DR@W Forum: Erik Stuchly (Hamburg)

John Taylor — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 12:52:29 GMT

When: 2:30pm - 3:45pm, Thu, 07 May '26

Where: WBS 2.007

There is substantial evidence that humans engage their own decision-making mechanisms when predicting choices of others. According to one account, such predictions are implemented by the observer running a single simulation of the other person’s decision process in their mind and selecting the simulation outcome as the choice option. However, such an implementation would result in a large degree of stochasticity in predicted choices, thereby resulting in relatively low prediction accuracy.
In this talk, I will present an alternative idea - that observers could reduce uncertainty and increase prediction accuracy by simulating the decision between the same two options multiple times, sampling the outcomes of these simulations and then selecting the option corresponding to the most frequent outcome.

I will present results from a behavioural decision study employing the modified dictator game paradigm, aimed at testing whether we can identify behavioural indicators of sampling multiple simulation outcomes when participants predict other’s choices: specifically, whether participants show lower stochasticity and higher response times in predictions than self-decisions, after controlling for decision difficulty across these two conditions. I will complement these behavioural findings with analyses based on comparing the Drift-Diffusion model and a “sampling-of-decision-outcomes” model of choice. Together, these findings will shed light on potential differences between the mechanisms involved in making choices for ourselves and predicting the choices of others.

14/05 2:30pm-3:45pm: DR@W/EBER Seminar - Katie Coffman (Harvard Business School)

John Taylor — Fri, 12 Sep 2025 07:58:58 GMT

When: 2:30pm - 3:45pm, Thu, 14 May '26

Where: Wolfson Research Exchange (Library)

Details TBC

21/05 2:30pm-3:45pm: DR@W/EBER Seminar: Andis Sofianos (Durham)

John Taylor — Tue, 17 Mar 2026 12:50:04 GMT

When: 2:30pm - 3:45pm, Thu, 21 May '26

Where: WBS 2.007

Details TBC

28/05 2:30pm-3:45pm: DR@W Forum: Davide Pace (LMU)

John Taylor — Thu, 19 Mar 2026 11:24:47 GMT

When: 2:30pm - 3:45pm, Thu, 28 May '26

Where: WBS 1.007

Fairness views about the International Distribution of Climate Change Costs (With Johanna Kober)

Thirty years of international climate negotiations have produced shared targets but national contributions towards these targets remain insufficient. This paper measures how citizens believe the costs of climate policy should be allocated across countries, distinguishing between three cost categories: mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. To elicit fairness views, the study introduces and validates a novel survey module. Preliminary results indicate that the type of climate change cost affects the how people think the costs should be shared. For example, the weight given to current emissions for a fair allocation of mitigation costs is more than double the weight given to these emissions in the allocation of adaptation and loss and damage costs.

11/06 2:30pm-4pm: DR@W Forum: Marc Scholten (IADE)

John Taylor — Mon, 09 Mar 2026 12:51:09 GMT

When: 2:30pm - 4pm, Thu, 11 Jun '26

Where: WBS 1.015

Details TBC