BEGIN:VCALENDAR
PRODID:-//SiteBuilder 2//University of Warwick ITS Web Team//EN
VERSION:2.0
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-TIMEZONE:Europe/London
X-LIC-LOCATION:Europe/London
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Europe/London
LAST-MODIFIED:20201010T011803Z
TZURL:http://tzurl.org/zoneinfo/Europe/London
X-LIC-LOCATION:Europe/London
X-PROLEPTIC-TZNAME:LMT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+000115
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:18471201T000000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19160521T020000
RDATE:19170408T020000
RDATE:19180324T020000
RDATE:19190330T020000
RDATE:19200328T020000
RDATE:19210403T020000
RDATE:19220326T020000
RDATE:19230422T020000
RDATE:19240413T020000
RDATE:19270410T020000
RDATE:19300413T020000
RDATE:19330409T020000
RDATE:19340422T020000
RDATE:19350414T020000
RDATE:19380410T020000
RDATE:19390416T020000
RDATE:19400225T020000
RDATE:19460414T020000
RDATE:19470316T020000
RDATE:19480314T020000
RDATE:19490403T020000
RDATE:19530419T020000
RDATE:19540411T020000
RDATE:19570414T020000
RDATE:19600410T020000
RDATE:19680218T020000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19161001T030000
RDATE:19170917T030000
RDATE:19180930T030000
RDATE:19190929T030000
RDATE:19201025T030000
RDATE:19211003T030000
RDATE:19221008T030000
RDATE:19391119T030000
RDATE:19471102T030000
RDATE:19481031T030000
RDATE:19491030T030000
RDATE:19711031T030000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19230916T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19240921T020000Z;BYMONTH=9;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19250419T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19260418T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19251004T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19381002T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=2,3,4,5,6,
 7,8;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19280422T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19290421T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19310419T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19320417T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19360419T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19370418T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BDST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0200
DTSTART:19410504T020000
RDATE:19450402T020000
RDATE:19470413T020000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19410810T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19430815T010000Z;BYMONTH=8;BYMONTHDAY=9,10,11,12,
 13,14,15;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BDST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0200
DTSTART:19420405T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19440402T010000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=2,3,4,5,6,7
 ,8;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19440917T030000
RDATE:19450715T030000
RDATE:19470810T030000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19451007T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19461006T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=2,3,4,5,6,
 7,8;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19500416T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19520420T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=14,15,16,17
 ,18,19,20;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19501022T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19521026T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=21,22,23,2
 4,25,26,27;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19531004T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19601002T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=2,3,4,5,6,
 7,8;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19550417T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19560422T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19580420T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19590419T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19610326T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19630331T020000Z;BYMONTH=3;BYDAY=-1SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19611029T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19671029T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=23,24,25,2
 6,27,28,29;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19640322T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19670319T020000Z;BYMONTH=3;BYMONTHDAY=19,20,21,22
 ,23,24,25;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19681026T230000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19720319T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19800316T020000Z;BYMONTH=3;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19721029T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19801026T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=23,24,25,2
 6,27,28,29;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19810329T010000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=3;BYDAY=-1SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19811025T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19891029T010000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=23,24,25,2
 6,27,28,29;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19901028T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19951022T010000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYDAY=4SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19960101T000000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19961027T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=10;BYDAY=-1SU
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260409T120600Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20131002T130000
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20131002T140000
SUMMARY:Complexity Forum: Andrey Morozov (Leicester)
TZID:Europe/London
UID:20131002-094d43a23d3fbe05013d8c399d5c247e@warwick.ac.uk
CREATED:20130321T091228Z
DESCRIPTION:Speaker: Andrey Morozov (Leicester) Title: Detecting structur
 al sensitivity in biological models: developing a new framework Abstract
 : When we construct mathematical models to represent a given real-world 
 system\, there is always a degree of uncertainty with regards to the mod
 el specification\, whether with respect to the choice of parameters or t
 o the choice of formulation of model functions. This can become a real p
 roblem in some cases\, where choosing two different functions with close
  shapes in a model can result in substantially different model predictio
 ns. This phenomenon is known as structural sensitivity\, and is a signif
 icant obstacle to improving the predictive power of models\, particularl
 y in fields where it is not possible to derive the functions suitable fo
 r representing system processes from theory or physical laws\, such as t
 he biological sciences. In this talk\, I shall revisit the notion of str
 uctural sensitivity and its relation to the property of structural (in)s
 tability\, and propose a general approach to reveal structural sensitivi
 ty which is a far more powerful technique than the conventional approach
  consisting of fixing a particular functional form and varying its param
 eters\, since we consider the infinite-dimensional neighbourhood of a gi
 ven model's unknown functions. In particular\, a rigorous method to unea
 rth sensitivity with respect to the local stability of a system's equili
 brium points will be discussed. Then\, I implement the method to explore
  sensitivity in several well-known multicomponent ecological models\, de
 monstrate the existence of structural sensitivity in these models and sh
 ow that conventional methods based on variation of parameters alone will
  often miss such sensitivity. I shall discuss the consequences that stru
 ctural sensitivity and the resulting model uncertainty may have for the 
 modelling of biological systems. In particular\, I shall consider that s
 tructural sensitivity may allow models to represent far more complex dyn
 amics than the dimension of the state-space may suggest\, and that in a 
 structurally sensitive model\, the concept of a "concrete" bifurcation s
 tructure may no longer be relevant. In this case\, we can only describe 
 bifurcations with a certain probability. I suggest several ways to defin
 e the probability of a bifurcation taking place when there is uncertaint
 y in the parameterization in model functions. I call bifurcations in suc
 h systems the fuzzy bifurcations and I provide an example of constructio
 n of a fuzzy bifurcation for a class of predator-prey biological models.
 
LOCATION:D1.07
CATEGORIES:forum
LAST-MODIFIED:20130321T091338Z
ORGANIZER;CN=Karen McKinley:
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR