BEGIN:VCALENDAR
PRODID:-//SiteBuilder 2//University of Warwick ITS Web Team//EN
VERSION:2.0
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-TIMEZONE:Europe/London
X-LIC-LOCATION:Europe/London
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Europe/London
LAST-MODIFIED:20201010T011803Z
TZURL:http://tzurl.org/zoneinfo/Europe/London
X-LIC-LOCATION:Europe/London
X-PROLEPTIC-TZNAME:LMT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+000115
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:18471201T000000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19160521T020000
RDATE:19170408T020000
RDATE:19180324T020000
RDATE:19190330T020000
RDATE:19200328T020000
RDATE:19210403T020000
RDATE:19220326T020000
RDATE:19230422T020000
RDATE:19240413T020000
RDATE:19270410T020000
RDATE:19300413T020000
RDATE:19330409T020000
RDATE:19340422T020000
RDATE:19350414T020000
RDATE:19380410T020000
RDATE:19390416T020000
RDATE:19400225T020000
RDATE:19460414T020000
RDATE:19470316T020000
RDATE:19480314T020000
RDATE:19490403T020000
RDATE:19530419T020000
RDATE:19540411T020000
RDATE:19570414T020000
RDATE:19600410T020000
RDATE:19680218T020000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19161001T030000
RDATE:19170917T030000
RDATE:19180930T030000
RDATE:19190929T030000
RDATE:19201025T030000
RDATE:19211003T030000
RDATE:19221008T030000
RDATE:19391119T030000
RDATE:19471102T030000
RDATE:19481031T030000
RDATE:19491030T030000
RDATE:19711031T030000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19230916T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19240921T020000Z;BYMONTH=9;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19250419T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19260418T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19251004T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19381002T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=2,3,4,5,6,
 7,8;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19280422T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19290421T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19310419T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19320417T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19360419T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19370418T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BDST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0200
DTSTART:19410504T020000
RDATE:19450402T020000
RDATE:19470413T020000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19410810T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19430815T010000Z;BYMONTH=8;BYMONTHDAY=9,10,11,12,
 13,14,15;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BDST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0200
DTSTART:19420405T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19440402T010000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=2,3,4,5,6,7
 ,8;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19440917T030000
RDATE:19450715T030000
RDATE:19470810T030000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19451007T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19461006T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=2,3,4,5,6,
 7,8;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19500416T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19520420T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=14,15,16,17
 ,18,19,20;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19501022T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19521026T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=21,22,23,2
 4,25,26,27;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19531004T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19601002T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=2,3,4,5,6,
 7,8;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19550417T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19560422T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19580420T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19590419T020000Z;BYMONTH=4;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19610326T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19630331T020000Z;BYMONTH=3;BYDAY=-1SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19611029T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19671029T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=23,24,25,2
 6,27,28,29;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19640322T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19670319T020000Z;BYMONTH=3;BYMONTHDAY=19,20,21,22
 ,23,24,25;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19681026T230000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19720319T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19800316T020000Z;BYMONTH=3;BYMONTHDAY=16,17,18,19
 ,20,21,22;BYDAY=SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19721029T030000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19801026T020000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=23,24,25,2
 6,27,28,29;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZNAME:BST
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
DTSTART:19810329T010000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=3;BYDAY=-1SU
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19811025T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19891029T010000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYMONTHDAY=23,24,25,2
 6,27,28,29;BYDAY=SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19901028T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;UNTIL=19951022T010000Z;BYMONTH=10;BYDAY=4SU
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0000
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19960101T000000
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZNAME:GMT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0000
DTSTART:19961027T020000
RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=10;BYDAY=-1SU
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260518T121934Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20190603T130000
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20190603T140000
SUMMARY:Henrik Singmann (Warwick Psychology)
TZID:Europe/London
UID:20190603-8a1785d86a11d455016a510d2d961ba3@warwick.ac.uk
CREATED:20190424T204727Z
DESCRIPTION:A Bayesian and Frequentist Multiverse Pipeline for Multinomia
 l Processing Tree Models – Applications to Recognition Memory Authors: H
 enrik Singmann (University of Warwick)\, Daniel W. Heck (Universität Man
 nheim)\, Marius Barth (Universität zu Köln)\, Julia Groß (Heinrich-Heine
 -Universität Düsseldorf)\, Beatrice G. Kuhlmann (Universität Mannheim) A
 bstract: Even with a clear hypothesis or cognitive model in mind\, most 
 statistical analyses contain several more or less arbitrary choices. In 
 the case of a model-based analysis\, these choices can concern the stati
 stical framework\, the aggregation-level\, and which parameter restricti
 ons to introduce. Usually one path through this ‘garden of forking paths
 ’ (Gelman & Loken\, 2013) is chosen and reported. However\, it is unclea
 r how much each choice affects the reported results. The multiverse appr
 oach (Steegen\, Tuerlinckx\, Gelman\, & Vanpaemel\, 2016) offers a princ
 ipled alternative in which results for all possible combinations of reas
 onable modeling choices are reported. We developed a software package fo
 r R that performs a model-based multiverse analysis for multinomial proc
 essing tree (MPT) models\, MPTmultiverse. Our package estimates MPT mode
 ls in a frequentist and Bayesian manner. In the frequentist case\, it us
 es no pooling (with and without bootstrap) and complete pooling. In the 
 Bayesian case\, it uses no pooling\, complete pooling\, and three differ
 ent variants of partial pooling. We applied our approach to a large conf
 idence-rating recognition memory data corpus consisting of 12 studies wi
 th over 450 participants using a relatively unrestricted variant of the 
 2-high threshold model for confidence ratings (Bröder\, Kellen\, Schütz\
 , & Rohrmeier\, 2013). Our results show that even for some core paramete
 rs\, the different analysis approaches reveal considerable variability i
 n the parameter estimates across estimation methods. Our results suggest
  that researchers should adopt a multiverse approach when using cognitiv
 e models.
LOCATION:D2.02 Engineering
CATEGORIES:
LAST-MODIFIED:20190424T204727Z
ORGANIZER;CN=Peter Brommer:
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR