Electric car sales are booming in 2023. Figures for the first quarter of this year are 25% up on the same period in 2022 and predictions suggest another 14 million electric cars will be manufactured and be on roads by the end of this year. That means an 18% share of car sales globally and rising (IEA statistics, 2023 ).

Rather than evidence of a brave new leap into an age of sustainable transport, it is a signal that the world is moving headlong on a linear route towards missing environmental targets and creating a host of new problems around materials. Narrow thinking; missed opportunities; lost time.

By themselves, sustainable transport technologies like electric vehicles only mean new (and serious) drains on scarce critical materials; greater energy demands and more greenhouse gases and other types of pollution. Instead, green technologies need to be just one element in the chain of a larger, genuinely sustainable transformation of transport around the world: Circular Economy systems made up of loops of re-use, recovery, re-manufacturing and recycling of our limited stock of materials and natural resources.

This can only happen with co-operation across the whole range of players involved with transport systems: vehicle manufacturers and members of their supply chains, raw materials providers, transport service operators and governments, as well as the scientists, engineers and social scientists working to provide solid direction and evidence for ways forward.

Which is why CENTS (Circular Economy Network+ in Transportation Systems) exists. The CENTS network came together at Cranfield University for its first International Conference on Circular Economy in Transport on 10/11 May 2023, to play its part in raising awareness of the critical importance of Circular Economy approaches to the transport sector, to help accelerate implementation and act as a showcase for what’s happening in terms of research and industry projects. The three-year programme has been funded by the EPSRC and led by the Warwick Manufacturing Group at the University of Warwick alongside partners Cranfield University, the British Geological Survey, the University of Surrey, and the University of Cambridge. Industry partners include Tata Steel Automotive Engineering, Rolls Royce, Innoval Technology, Gen2Carbon, Ansys Granta, Beta Technology, alongside policy partners like IOM3, Chatham House, Connected Places Catapult, the Cast Metals Federation, Knowledge Transfer Network, British Stainless Steel Association, High Value Manufacturing Catapult and EIT RawMaterials.

In opening the conference, Professor Karen Holford (Chief Executive and Vice-Chancellor, Cranfield University) emphasised the scale of both the challenge and the opportunity for the transport sector and its stakeholders. The history of transport, she said, has been filled with short-term thinking and developments that have only led to an accumulation of problems. Now is the time to get things right from the start, working together to build long-terms solution with workable foundations of sustainability.

Professor Sarah Sharples (Chief Scientific Advisor, Department for Transport) highlighted the nature of sustainable transport as a wicked problem, a mix of increasing demand for transportation (meaning more challenges when it comes to meeting carbon reduction targets for the sector); the complexity of balancing old and new systems — bound up with the issue of public support and acceptance and how we can’t impose changes that undermine established freedoms; along with the pain being caused by disruption to business models, competition from new transport models and players, including increased competition when it comes to access to low carbon materials. At the same time, Professor Sharples pointed to the economic opportunities presented by sustainable transport, and the example of how initial government investments into autonomous and connected vehicle schemes have been followed by more substantial funding from business. But government needs help, she said: there are not yet clear pathways, and scientists and engineers need to be at the heart of influencing change, setting out the most effective solutions and evidence for where to invest.

The priorities

In their presentations and discussion, CENTS network members outlined the priorities for introducing Circular Economy models:

1. Make it about business

 

In industry, there is a combination of a lack of ‘materials literacy’ — a full recognition of the scarcity of materials, of the alternatives to using particular materials, the importance of taking responsibility for materials stocks and supplies through recycling, re-use and re-manufacture — alongside an anxiety when it comes to what circular initiatives and processes means for business models and profitability, in other words, the sheer level of risk involved in change.

So there has to be a strong business case. There has to be clarity on exactly how the money is going to be made, how much and when, said Dr Robert Reinhardt, a Sustainable Business Consultant working with an enterprise based on providing a second life for automotive vehicle batteries.

Fundamentally, argued Professor Mark Jolly (Director of Manufacturing, Cranfield University), that includes moving away from the use of word ‘waste’. Materials shouldn’t ever be seen as something that can just be discarded; instead there are ‘by-products’ which can still have an important value and use. Dr Russ Hall (Chief Engineer, High Value Manufacturing Catapult) added there needs to be a shift in the idea of ‘value’ in general, away from the typical business model driven by cost per unit and where value is understood to plummet at the point of consumption, the instant that any product or material has been used.

This can be done through far more detailed accounting for materials; not treating materials and natural resources as coming from a magical, endlessly renewable supply. That means careful stock-taking and monitoring of movement of those materials. And in particular, beginning to recognise the critical importance of stocks of materials within the UK or other individual countries, and not relying on imports (cheap or otherwise). China, for example, is currently estimated to be responsible for 90% of the processing of the world’s materials, 80% of their extraction.

Professor Jonathan Cullen (Professor of Sustainable Engineering, University of Cambridge) referred to how the UK has fallen well behind other more developed nations in terms of the recycling and recovery of materials, having become reliant on the cheaper option (at least for the moment) of importing materials and sending its ‘waste’ overseas. This has, so far, been a missed opportunity in terms of new enterprise opportunities for reprocessing and re-use — and for keeping materials stocks within the UK.

Meeting the UK’s targets for switching to light electric vehicles by 2035 involves some severe implications for materials use. Research by Dr Ben Davies (Research Fellow, University of Nottingham) shows how the demand for EV batteries would require access to an unlikely proportion of world stocks of nickel, cobalt, manganese and lithium. Within five years, the demand from the UK would come to exceed that of the entire European Union. But with recycling the picture begins to make more sense: keeping hold of, and re-using, stocks of EV batteries within the UK would mean there could be a 50/50 balance of imports of primary materials and use of secondary materials by 2045.

 

2. Encourage standards and sharing of data

 

Financially viable Circular Economy models will be built on data, knowing specifically what we have, the origin and qualities, what can be re-used, recycled or re-manufactured and how. Ideally, a global bill of materials, a stock-take that would be the foundation for both minimising (and stigmatising) ‘waste’.

Roger Morton (Managing Director for Technology, EMR) highlighted how the demand for low carbon materials among transport manufacturers was creating new markets (given the situation where 24 tonnes of carbon was involved in the manufacture of a typical electric saloon car compared with 12 tonnes of embodied carbon in a conventional petrol car). It was more important than ever, he said, to have reliable data on embodied carbon in order to trade re-usable materials, especially in terms of components like batteries, when the full value to the seller and purchaser can only be realised with specific data on type and composition.

Wan-Ting Hsu (Material Flow Research Analyst, British Geographical Survey) outlined her work on a national data observatory tracking flows of rare earth materials, such as neodymium and dysprosium, that are essential to both EVs and wind turbines. 100% of these materials are currently being imported into the UK. Evidence from the research suggests how introducing Circular Economy processes with these materials would mean there could be higher levels of ‘outflow’ (stocks of re-usable neodymium etc) than there are imports into the UK by 2040.

To help create a reliable and usable basis of data, it was agreed there is an urgent need for collaboration across transport industries (and industry generally) to standardise components as a basis for assessing value and re-processing.

3. Think whole life cycle

For sustainable transport policies to deliver true benefits, the environmental impact of the whole life cycle of transport vehicles has to be taken into account: including embodied carbon in the manufacture of vehicles (and the supply chains of manufacturers), water use, and the impact on human health.

This in turn, will support the business case for a Circular Economy approach by making sure the full range of factors and costs are included. Any measurements of sustainability should, ideally, reflect how the planned technology or approach works in terms of circularity, argued Dr Russ Hill.

Robert Knowles (Sustainability Consultant, Oakdene Hillier) outlined a project helping the insurance industry to create a ‘sustainable claims’ offer relating to transport vehicles, encouraging re-use of materials and circularity. Insurance is an example of a sector that is increasingly conscious of the destructive consequences of climate change for financial viability. For insurance that means the potential for a cycle of ever-heightening risks, vast premiums and loss of customers. The study confirms with hard evidence how repairing components in vehicles has a much smaller cost in terms of greenhouse gases than replacing them.

4. Build co-operation over competition

Professor Kerry Kirwan (Deputy Pro-Vice-Chancellor, Warwick Manufacturing Group) flagged the central issue of business competition, why the move away from a linear to a circular approach has been hampered by a rigid sense of the need to retain competitive advantage. Co-operation and competition need to — and can — co-exist in transport sectors in order to deliver greater resilience and sustainability.

Dr Christopher Pilgrim (Knowledge Transfer Manager, Innovate UK) updated CENTS on activity going on among stakeholders involved with aluminium sector — a material which can be an important means of reducing levels of embodied carbon in vehicles. Despite this, the UK is currently in a situation where it imports aluminium at a cost of £3,000 a tonne, and exports at £2,000 a tonne. Work has brought together players in aluminium, including transport manufacturers and government, to create action plans for accelerating use of Circular Economy models.

 

The opportunities

 

In spite of the complexity and challenges around co-operation and integration of ideas, the CENTS network agreed that the need for a Circular Economy will ultimately keep coming to the fore in conversations around sustainable transport, because it is the only model that leads to long-term solutions.

There are growing opportunities for circular business across global transport systems. For example, Dr Stavros Karamperidis (University of Plymouth Business School) explained how there are more than 100,000 merchant vessels currently in operation, carrying 80% of global trade. Maritime transport is predicted to triple by 2050, meaning a massive expansion in demand for materials. Typically, a third of the value of each maritime vessel is contained within the engine. Research at the School has shown how engines can be remanufactured for half the cost of replacement, meaning huge potential for new enterprises.

Swedish electric car manufacturer Polestar is an example of a business willing to stand up, acknowledge problems and be ambitious in its plans for change. The interior of the current Polestar 2 was designed for cost effectiveness rather than circularity. Each interior involves the use of 300kg of 67 different types of plastics, only 12% of which are currently recycled. But, as Helena Simmonds (Research Leader, Polestar) made clear, the business aims for transformation. With Polestar 0 the company is attempting to design and manufacture an electric vehicle involving zero greenhouse gas emissions throughout the process, meaning net zero embodied carbon. The business is also looking at interior designs for all of its models that use only a single material, and modular car designs that make for straightforward upgrades and re-use.

Carl Waring (Principal Consultant, Frazer-Nash Consultancy) has mapped the potential in the UK’s rail industry for moving to a circular model in its asset management. This would be based around a move to a whole-life value policy, more transparency of data on assets, and shifting responsibility for the reliability of assets to manufacturers (providing low carbon assets as a service). He pointed to the distributed nature of the rail system and natural opportunity for re-manufacturing businesses to be spread around the network.

In his study of LinkedIn data on companies, Professor Konstantinos Tsagarakis (Technical University of Crete) has suggested that the UK is a leader in terms of the number of its businesses involved in the Circular Economy. In the year to January 2023, the number increased to 1280 companies and 53,000 employees.

And as was pointed out by Christopher Pilgrim, circularity in transport has an increasingly influential body of champions among consumers. Many of the biggest consumer brands are looking to re-engage their customers by shouting about sustainable materials. Like Coca-Cola, whose recent advertising has seen more attention being paid to the bottle than the drink itself.

The urgency of climate change issues means attempts at sustainable transport are coming in one form or another. Without roots in thinking about materials and the real costs of those materials, the changes will need regular and hugely wasteful re-invention.

 

More information on the Circular Economy Network+ in Transportation Systems and future events can be found at CENTS Network.

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