On 22 March 2024, Yevhen Mahda set out the following theses in his speech at the Kalinowski Conference, held in Vilnius in the Seimas (parliament) of Lithuania. This is an annual meeting dedicated to the security of the Baltic-Black Sea region. This year’s event was focused on Ukraine and countering Russian aggression - Editor

Yevhen Mahda, ISANS expert, associate professor at Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute

Belarus should not remain an area of Russian monopoly influence, says Yevhen Mahda. He proposes starting a discussion on the joint actions necessary by Belarus's neighbours to ensure favourable transformations in the country.

Ten theses for transforming Belarus

1. "Long Live Belarus" should be the principle of European security policy. Politics consists of symbols and the possibility of Belarus embarking on a path of transformation should be ensured by enhancing its status.

2. Without a democratic Belarus, there is no safety in Europe. Ukraine realised the truth of this assertion on 24 February, 2022, when Russian troops entered from Belarusian territory, attempting to capture Kyiv and change the government in Ukraine. The responsibility for turning Belarus into a platform for aggression, a repair base, and now working in the interests of the Russian defense industry lies squarely with Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

3. Rebooting Belarus is a shared European responsibility. We need a dialogue with the Belarusian democratic forces based on an agreed position among EU countries, the United Kingdom, and candidates for future EU membership. Belarus should not tarnish the reputation of the European continent with its authoritarian regime.

4. The EU should create a Belarus Development Agency. We must assume that the political regime in Belarus will change. However, we shouldn't rely on miracles—operational capabilities are needed that draw on the experience of transformations in other post-socialist countries over the past 30 years. We must create a road map for Belarus and provide the necessary funding for transformations. I think the pan-European group "Friends of Belarus" could become a powerful lobby for future transformations.

5. The Lublin Triangle should become the driver of democratic transformation in Belarus, and corresponding institutions should be established in its member countries: Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine. The Lublin Triangle format is going through challenging times, with noticeable contradictions between the three member states. Joint work on Belarus's future could help Warsaw, Vilnius, and Kyiv to understand each other better, and help Ukraine form an effective strategy regarding Belarus.

6. Belarus should be not a Russian balcony, but a successful country in the centre of Europe. The term "Belarusian balcony" was used during World War II. Russia is known for using militaristic rhetoric in political processes. Our collective response should be pragmatic, effective, with a clear plan for transformations and aimed at rapid changes in the politics and economy of Belarus.

7. The Baltic-Black Sea region is under threat due to the escalation of the Russian threat. It is entirely possible that Putin is preparing to expand the theater of war by involving other states in our region. Focusing on Belarus will allow us to concentrate on the regional context and create an effective response system to the Kremlin's actions.

8. The transit of Ukrainian experience (the concept of “1,000 steps”) should help the quicker transformation of Belarusian society and dismantle the myth of a triune Slavic people. Today, Ukraine is the most similar in terms of reforms in politics, economy, and social life to Belarus. The decentralisation, privatisation of state property, and decommunisation in Ukraine could serve as a potential model for transforming Belarus in everyone’s interests.

9. Restoring Belarus's non-nuclear status should contribute to the revival of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The demonstrative placement of tactical nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory demonstrates Vladimir Putin's intention only to step up aggressive actions and create preconditions for the internationalisation of the Russian-Ukrainian war. By placing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, the Kremlin is trying to create a direct and real threat to European security.

10. We must jointly conduct a review of past mistakes regarding policy toward Belarus, resulting in the formation of a road map for democratic transformations in Belarus. Real step-by-step changes in Belarus could become the key to completing the transformations in Europe following the collapse of the USSR.