Paul Hansbury

WUB Hub Research Fellow

A longer version of this text was published on the author’s personal blog under the title ‘On Betrayal and Hope: Ukraine’s Future’

At the weekend, the European Union’s Josep Borrell visited Kyiv and sought to assure Ukrainians of the bloc’s ‘unwavering’ support. The statement, of course, came on the heels of Donald Trump’s election victory which has provoked concerns that the US will cut military and financial aid to Ukraine. But a political mess in Germany and a stymied government in France ensure that ‘Europe’ has been missing in action on Ukraine over the past week.

Accordingly, there is widespread expectation that a ‘betrayal’ of Ukraine is coming early next year once Trump is in the White House. As Max Hastings suggested in a newspaper column at the weekend, European leaders see Trump as providing them with a ‘scapegoat’ to ‘get them off the hook’ of providing further military support to Ukraine.

Moreover, the expectation is that the US and its European allies, as well as drawing down their military aid, could push Ukraine into an unfavourable peace settlement. The details of Trump’s much-trumpeted negotiated settlement, which he implausibly claims he will broker ‘within 24 hours’ of taking office, are sketchy.

The best we have to go on is JD Vance’s vague proposals in an interview in September, which suggested a deal highly favourable to Russia. It would involve freezing the conflict along the current demarcation lines, therefore effectively ceding all occupied territory to Russia, and creating a demilitarised zone. Secondly, it envisages Ukraine’s neutrality, therefore ending Kyiv’s aspirations of joining NATO.

That may all happen. There are at least three reasons, however, to doubt that such a betrayal of Ukraine awaits the world in 2025.

Ukraine has agency in the matter

The first challenge to the argument, particularly its implicit belief Russia will largely dictate the terms of a settlement, is that Ukraine has agency in the outcome. The reason many in 2022 failed to foresee the level of resistance Ukraine would put up is partly down to overlooking the strong morale of Ukraine's troops. Ukraine may matter more to Russia than the US, which has always been Vladimir Putin’s wager, but it matters yet more to the Ukrainians. Given how courageous, innovative and unexpected has been Ukraine's defence over the past two years, it’s hard to believe that its leaders will simply throw in the towel.

Volodomyr Zelenskyy spoke to Trump on Wednesday (reports say that Elon Musk was also on the call). He does not seem to be despairing about the US election result despite the lukewarm reception his 'victory plan' received in Washington DC in late September when he presented it to the Trump team. The Ukrainians seem confident that Trump and Putin will not strike an agreement behind their backs. Officials in Kyiv have grown tired of a ponderous Joe Biden administration, with its persistent reluctance to risk escalation, and therefore welcome a change.

Trump could appoint advocates of military aid to Ukraine to his team

The general view, one which I share, is that Trump will appoint yes-men and -women to his cabinet and administration. He is free from many of the domestic constraints he faced during his previous term as president. There have, though, been some unexpected names cropping up in the speculation about prospective appointments which is a second reason to question the narrative of an imminent sell out of Ukraine.

A popular prediction for secretary of state, or perhaps national security adviser, is the hawkish Robert O'Brien. He served as Trump's national security adviser towards the end of his previous term and has not ruled out providing military aid to Ukraine. In an article in Foreign Affairs over the summer, while emphasising that Trump sought a negotiated settlement, he insisted that providing lethal aid to Ukraine was part of the negotiation process. The rub, for America’s European allies, is that – in O’Brien’s telling – they must fund such aid.

Ric Grenell is another name being mentioned. He reportedly sat in on Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy in late September, at which Ukraine’s ‘victory plan’ was presented to the future president. Grenell has been described as having 'an often-caustic personality'. Not unlike Vance’s version of a peace plan, he wants to see a 'neutral zone' in Ukraine, although he also underscores that Europe should pay for Ukraine's defence which, at the very least, suggests some ambiguity about prioritising the war's end at any cost.

Putin’s bargaining hand may be weaker than he thinks

Whilst Russian troops are advancing in eastern Ukraine, progress remains relatively slow and Russia is thought to be suffering heavy casualties. Putin may think that he is in a strong position to get a favourable settlement, but that is far from certain.

Russia's hopes were boosted on Saturday when one of Trump's advisers said that Ukraine needed to give up hopes of restoring sovereignty over Crimea. But Russia's reliance on North Korean shells, and now its troops, shows that, in the short term at least, it is far less well positioned to drive home the deal it wants over Ukraine. Putin wants everyone to think he is negotiating from a position of strength, but he may be under delusions about the strength of his bargaining hand.

Vance’s version of a deal, while highly favourable to Russia, may not satisfy an overly confident Putin. If we base our expectations of Trump's deal on the rhetoric of O’Brien and Grenell, there are even stronger reasons to think that Putin will dislike the terms offered. If Russia’s president does not like what Trump proposes, then the US will have to consider alternatives to get past the deadlock.

The mood in the US and Europe could quickly shift if Russia is seen to be struggling on the battlefield as Trump aborts efforts to broker a deal. Assuming efforts to negotiate a settlement fail, it is conceivable that Trump ends up giving more, not less, military aid to Ukraine than the Joe Biden administration has. Trump is not likely to engage in the ponderous decision making that characterised the Biden team, where national security adviser Jake Sullivan constantly urged restraint and raised fears of escalation according to many sources.

Many Republicans do not want to abandon Ukraine. Trump may come to realise that peace is hard to achieve and that ongoing support for Ukraine will boost his popularity, both at home and abroad.

Views and opinions expressed on the blog do not necessarily reflect the views of the Warwick Ukraine-Belarus Hub

Cover image shows Presidents Trump and Putin at the G20 summit in Osaka, 2019. Public domain image from the White House archives.