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MEMVIE: Mathematical & Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation

Immunization is a key and highly successful tool in the fight against a range of infectious diseases, but is associated with a considerable cost, with the UK spending in excess of £200 million per year on vaccines and vaccine delivery. Infectious disease and health economic models are therefore necessary to assess whether any change in the immunization programme is cost-effective; that is, whether the value placed on health benefits or improvements in social welfare that ensue are less than the incremental cost associated with the change in programme.

The University of Warwick has considerable experience and expertise in this area, with the assembled team serving on several government advisory boards associated with public health. The team brings cutting-edge research techniques in mathematical modelling and health economics to provide a complementary second opinion on the work undertaken in this area by Public Health England (PHE) / UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA). Warwick has a strong international reputation for work on a range of infectious diseases and providing measured policy advice to a number of government agencies.

Through regular meetings with the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and PHE/UKHSA we ensure that our programme of dynamic and health economic modelling on infectious diseases meets the needs of DHSC and JCVI, and reports are presented in a way that is of immediate use to policy-makers. In particular, we outline assumptions made, highlight gaps in the necessary data and define how these affect the interpretation of the results. Two other methods are being used to validate our conclusions: firstly, we seek to publish our findings in appropriate journals thereby opening our results to peer-review by the wider international academic community; secondly, we compare our predictions to changes in disease incidence and other health outcomes that follow changes in vaccine policy.

The infectious diseases (and connected vaccination programmes) under study by the MEMVIE team are:

Pertussis vaccineFlu vaccine

    1. S Moore, EM Hill, L Dyson, MJ Tildesley, MJ Keeling (2022) Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic Nature Medicine 28, 2416–2423.
    2. MJ Keeling, S Moore. (2022) "An assessment of the vaccination of school-aged children in England" BMC Medicine 20: 196.
    3. MJ Keeling, A Thomas, EM Hill, RN Thompson, L Dyson, MJ Tildesley, S Moore. (2021) "Waning, Boosting and a Path to Endemicity for SARS-CoV-2" medRxiv.
    4. EM Hill, MJ Keeling. (2021) "Comparison between one and two dose SARS-CoV-2 vaccine prioritization for a fixed number of vaccine doses" Interface. 18(182): 20210214.
    5. Moore, S., Hill, E.M., Tildesley, M., Dyson, L., Keeling, M.J. (2021) "Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study " Lancet Infectious Diseases. 21(6): 793-802.
    6. Moore, S., Hill, E.M., Dyson, L., Tildesley, M., Keeling, M.J. (2021) "Modelling optimal vaccination strategy for SARS-CoV-2 in the UKLink opens in a new windowLink opens in a new window" PLoS Comp. Biol. 17(5): e1008849.
    7. Stanizewska S, Hill EM, Grant R, Grove P, Porter J, Shiri T, Tulip S, Whitehurst J, Wright C, Datta S, Petrou S and Keeling MJ. (2021) Developing a Framework for Public Involvement in Mathematical and Economic Modelling: Bringing New Dynamism to Vaccination Policy Recommendations.Link opens in a new window Patient. doi:10.1007/s40271-020-00476-xLink opens in a new window.
    8. Hill EM, Petrou S, Forster H, de Lusignan S, Yonova I, Keeling MJ. (2020) Optimising age coverage of seasonal influenza vaccination in England: A mathematical and health economic evaluation.Link opens in a new window PLoS Computational Biology 16(10): e1008278. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008278Link opens in a new window.
    9. Hill EM, Petrou S, de Lusignan S, Yonova I and Keeling MJ. (2019) Seasonal influenza: Modelling approaches to capture immunity propagation.Link opens in a new window PLoS Computational Biology 15(10): e1007096. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007096Link opens in a new window
    10. Datta S, Pink J, Medley GF, Petrou S, Staniszewska S, Underwood M, Sonnenberg P & Keeling MJ. (2019) Assessing the costeffectiveness of vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys.Link opens in a new window BMC Infectious Diseases 19: 552. doi: 10.1186/s12879-019-4108-yLink opens in a new window.
    11. Datta S, Pink J, Petrou S & Keeling, MJ. An economic evaluation of a cocooning strategy for pertussis vaccination in England and Wales. (Submitted)
    12. Shiri T, Kamran K, Keaney K, Mukherjee G, McCarthy ND & Petrou S. Economic aspects of pneumococcal disease: a systematic literature review.Link opens in a new window (2019) Value in Health 22(11): 1329-1344. doi: 10.1016/j.jval.2019.06.011Link opens in a new window
    13. Shiri T, McCarthy ND & Petrou S. (2019) The impact of childhood pneumococcal vaccination on hospital admissions in England: A whole population observational study.Link opens in a new window BMC Infectious Diseases 19: 510. doi: 10.1186/s12879-019-4119-8Link opens in a new window.
    14. Datta S, Mercer CH & Keeling MJ. (2018) Capturing sexual contact patterns in modelling the spread of sexually transmitted infections: Evidence using Natsal-3.Link opens in a new window PloS ONE 13(11): e0206501. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206501Link opens in a new window
    15. Leng T & Keeling MJ (2018) Concurrency of partnerships, consistency with data, and control of sexually transmitted infections.Link opens in a new window Epidemics 25: 35-46. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2018.05.003Link opens in a new window
    16. Nzenze SA, Madhi SA, Shiri T, Klugman KP, de Gouveia L, Moore DP, Karstaedt AS, Tempia S, Nunes MC & von Gottberg A (2017) Imputing the Direct and Indirect Effectiveness of Childhood Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Against Invasive Pneumococcal Disease by Surveying Temporal Changes in Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Colonization.Link opens in a new window Am. J. Epidemiol. 186(4): 435-444. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwx048Link opens in a new window
    17. Shiri T, Datta S, Madan J, Tsertsvadze A, Royle P, Keeling MJ, McCarthy ND & Petrou S (2017) Indirect effects of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on invasive pneumococcal disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Link opens in a new window Lancet Glob. Health. 5(1): e51-e59. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(16)30306-0Link opens in a new window
    18. Pink J, Parker B &Petrou S (2016) Cost effectiveness of HPV vaccination: a systematic review of modelling approaches. Link opens in a new windowPharmacoeconomics 34(9): 847-861. doi: 10.1007/s40273-016-0407-yLink opens in a new window

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    An NIHR project, funded by the UK Department of Health and Social Care.

    Researchers involved:


    Matt KeelingLink opens in a new window (Professor, joint between Warwick Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences)


    Stavros PetrouLink opens in a new window (Professor in Health Economics, Warwick Medical School)

    Sophie Staniszewska

    Sophie StaniszewskaLink opens in a new window (Leader of Patient and Public Involvement, Warwick Medical School)


    Ed HillLink opens in a new window (Warwick Zeeman Lecturer, Warwick Mathematics Institute)



    Graham MedleyLink opens in a new window (Professor, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)


    Martin UnderwoodLink opens in a new window (Director of Clinical Trials Unit, Warwick Medical School)

    Sam Moore (Now University of Lancaster)

    Tinevimbo Shiri

    Samik Datta (Now NIWA NewZealand)

    Joshua Pink