Office: Mathematical Sciences Bld 5.17
Teaching Responsibilities 2019/20: None
My research focuses on the three E's: Epidemiology, Evolution and Ecology. I am particularly interested in how spatial structure, heterogeneities and stochasticity affect the emergent population-level dynamics; as such my work uses a wide range of modelling tools and concepts. While large-scale simulations do play a substantial role in my work, I'm also very keen to develop simple modelling techniques that can capture the important dynamics of a system. The lists below give a flavour of my interests:
Epidemiology: Optimal control of infection, cost-effective vaccination, policy-relevant prediction, within-host immunological dynamics. Disease include: Foot-and-mouth disease, Avian influenza, and Bovine tuberculosis in livestock; and Measles, Whooping Cough, (seasonal and pandemic) Influenza, Pneumococcal infection and Neglected Tropical Diseases in humans.
Evolution: Disease evolution, host response to infection
Ecology: Bacteria-phage interactions, spatial habit-use, sea-grass dynamics, quantifying process from pattern..
Development of novel techniques: Pair-wise correlation models, Moment-closure approximations, Meta-population models, Kolmorgorov Forward Equations, Vector dynamics.
For more information on my research and that of my group see the Epidemiology section of the SBIDER page.
Philip Leverhulme Prize in Mathematics (2005)
Royal Zoological Society of London, Scientific Medal (2007)
Current Advisory Memberships.
Royal Society’s International Networks Committee (2007-2014)
Scientific Pandemic Influenza advisory group (Modelling), for Dept Health. (2009- ).
Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation for Dept of Health (2010-)
BBSRC Animal Disease Working Group (2012-)
Current Editorial duties.
Editor, Epidemics (2007-)
Publications. H-index 57, Total Citations >15,000. Publications on google scholar
Selected Major Publications. (click for a full publication list)
- Keeling, M.J. and Grenfell, B.T. (1997) Disease Extinction and Community Size: Modeling the Persistence of Measles. Science 275, 65-67.
- Keeling, M.J. (1999) The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions. Proc Roy Soc Lond B. 266 859-867
- Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D.T., Cornell, S.J., Kappey, J., Wilsmith, J. and Grenfell, B.T. (2001) Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape Science 294 813-817
- Eames, K.T.D. and Keeling M.J. 2002 Modelling Dynamic and Network Heterogeneities in the Spread of Sexually Transmitted Disease. P.N.A.S. 99 13330-13335.
- Ferguson, N., Keeling, M.J., Edmunds, J., Gani, R., Grenfell, B., Anderson, R., Leach, S. (2003) Risk assessment and vaccination planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 425 681-685
- Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., May, R.M., Davies, G. and Grenfell, B.T. (2003) Modelling Vaccination Strategies against Foot and Mouth Disease. Nature 421 136-142
- Keeling, M.J. and Eames, K.T.D. (2005) Networks and Epidemic Models J. Roy Soc. Interface 2 295-307.
- Tildesley, M.J., Savil, N.J., Deardon, R., Brooks, S.P., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Grenfell, B.T. and Keeling, M.J. (2006) Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440 83-86.
- Keeling, M.J. and Rohani, P. (2008) Modelling Infectious Diseases, Princeton University Press.
- Vernon, M.C. and Keeling, M.J. (2009) Representing the UK's cattle herd as static and dynamic networks. Proc. Roy. Soc. B. 276 469-476.
- Keeling, M.J., Danon, L., Vernon, M.C. and House, T.A. (2010) Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations. P.N.A.S. 107 8866-8870
- House, T. and Keeling, M.J. (2011) Insights from unifying modern approximations to infections on networks. J. Roy. Soc. Inferface 8 67-73
- Danon, L., House, T.A., Read, J.M. and Keeling, M.J. (2012) Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission. J. Roy. Soc. Interface rsif20120357.
- Black, A.J., House, T., Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. J. Roy. Soc. Interface. 10 20121019
- Brooks-Pollock, E., Roberts, G.O. and Keeling, M.J. (2014) A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain. Nature 511 228-231.
Recent & Current Research grants:
MRC, "Social contact survey and modelling the spread of influenza" (01/10/2008 - 30/09/2011)
BBSRC, "INFer: Likelihood-based inference for Epidemic Risk" (01/10/2009 - 30/09/2013)
EPSRC, "Implications of clustering for network-based processes" (01/01/2010 - 31/05/2013)
BBSRC, "Modelling systems for managing bee disease: the epidemiology of European Foul Brood" (01/04/2011 - 31/11/2013)
Wellcome Trust, "State-of-the-art Epidemic Models" (01/01/2011 - 31/09/2013)
NIH-BBSRC, "Linking models and policy: Using active adaptive management for optimal control of disease outbreaks." (1/09/2012 - 31/08/2016)
DEFRA, "A study to design risk based bTB surveillance regimes in England and Wales" (01/10/2012 - 31/09/2014)
ESRC, "Social assortativity and contagious processes in modern Britain" (01/01/2013 - 31/12/2015)
Dept of Health "Mathematical & Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation" (01/10/2013 - 30/09/2018)
DEFRA, "Sentinal aparies and detection of exotic pests of honey bees" (01/04/2014 - 31/03/2015)
EPSRC / MRC "Mathematics for Real-World Systems Centre for Doctoral Training" (01/10/2014 - 30/09/2019)