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The Zeeman Institute

Professor Matt Keeling

Picture of Matt Keeling  

Matt Keeling OBE

Professor
Joint appointment with Life Sciences

Director of Zeeman Inst. (SBIDER)
Deputy Director MathSys CDT

Office: Mathematical Sciences Bld 5.17


Phone: +44 (0)24 7652 4618
Email: M dot J dot Keeling at warwick dot ac dot uk

Teaching Responsibilities 2021/22:

One World Health LF307. Moodle

Immunology and Epidemiology LF211. Moodle

Topics in Mathematical Modelling MA999 (MathSys MSc)

Research Interests:
My research focuses on the three E's: Epidemiology, Evolution and Ecology. I am particularly interested in how spatial structure, heterogeneities and stochasticity affect the emergent population-level dynamics; as such my work uses a wide range of modelling tools and concepts. While large-scale simulations do play a substantial role in my work, I'm also very keen to develop simple modelling techniques that can capture the important dynamics of a system. The lists below give a flavour of my interests:
Epidemiology: Optimal control of infection, cost-effective vaccination, policy-relevant prediction, within-host immunological dynamics. Disease include: Foot-and-mouth disease, Avian influenza, and Bovine tuberculosis in livestock; and COVID-19, Measles, Whooping Cough, (seasonal and pandemic) Influenza, Pneumococcal infection and Neglected Tropical Diseases in humans.
Evolution: Disease evolution, host response to infection (immuno-epidemiology).
Ecology: Bacteria-phage interactions, spatial habit-use, sea-grass dynamics, quantifying process from pattern..
Development of novel techniques: Pair-wise correlation models, Moment-closure approximations, Meta-population models, Kolmorgorov Forward Equations, Vector dynamics.

For more information on my research and that of my group see the Combatting Diseases pages in SBIDER, or our recent COVID-19 work.

Prizes.
Philip Leverhulme Prize in Mathematics (2005)
Royal Zoological Society of London, Scientific Medal (2007)
OBE for services to SAGE during the COVID-19 outbreak (2021)

Current Advisory Memberships.
Royal Society’s International Networks Committee (2007-2014)
Scientific Pandemic Influenza advisory group (Modelling), for Dept Health. (2009- ).
Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation for Dept of Health (2010-)
BBSRC Animal Disease Working Group (2012-)

Current Editorial duties.
Editor, Epidemics (2007-)

Publications. H-index 70, Total Citations >25,000. google_scholar.jpg Publications on google scholar

Selected Recent and Major Publications. (click for a full publication list)

  1. Moore, S. Hill, E.M., Tildesley, M.J., Dyson, L, & Keeling M.J. (2021) Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 21 (6), 793-802
  2. Davis, C.N., Rock, K.S., Antillón, M., Miaka, E.M. & Keeling, M.J. (2021) Cost-effectiveness modelling to optimise active screening strategy for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in endemic areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo. BMC medicine 19 (1), 1-18
  3. Brand, S.P.C. et al (2021) COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya. Science 374 989-994
  4. Möhlmann, T.W.R., Keeling, M.J., Wennergren, U., Favia, G., Santman-Berends, I., Takken, W., Koenraadt, C.J.M., & Brand, S.P.C. (2021) Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks. Scientific Reports 11 (1), 1-16
  5. Aliee, M., Rock, K.S. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Estimating the distribution of time to extinction of infectious diseases in mean-field approaches. Roy. Soc. Interface 17 (173), 20200540
  6. Leng, T. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Improving pairwise approximations for network models with susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics. Theo. Biol. 500, 110328
  7. Moran, E., Robinson, E., Green, C., Keeling, M. & Collyer, B. (2020) Towards personalized guidelines: using machine-learning algorithms to guide antimicrobial selection. Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 75 (9), 2677-2680
  8. Tennant, W.S.D., Tildesley, M.J., Spencer, S.E.F. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949. Roy. Soc. B 287 (1928), 20200538
  9. Datta, S., Pink, J., Medley, G.F., Petrou, S., Staniszewska, S., Underwood, M., Sonnenberg, P. & Keeling, M.J. (2019) Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK. BMC Infectious Diseases. 19 552
  10. Keeling, M.J., Datta, S., Franklin, D.N., Flatman, I., Wattam, A., Brown, M. & Budge, G.E. (2017) Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK. Roy. Soc. Interface 14 20160908
  11. Brooks-Pollock, E., Roberts, G.O. and Keeling, M.J. (2014) A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain. Nature 511 228-
  12. Keeling, M.J., Danon, L., Vernon, M.C., and House, T.A. (2010) Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 8866-70
  13. Savill, N., St. Rose, S., Keeling, M., Woolhouse, M. 2006 Silent spread of H5N1 in vaccinated poultry. Nature 442 757-757
  14. Tildesley, M.J., Savill, N.J., Shaw, D.J., Deardon, R., Brooks, S.P., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Grenfell, B.T. and Keeling, M.J. 2006 Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440 83-86.
  15. Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., May, R.M., Davies, G. and Grenfell, B.T. 2003 Modelling Vaccination Strategies against Foot and Mouth Disease. Nature 421 136-142
  16. Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D.T., Cornell, S.J., Kappey, J., Wilsmith, J. and Grenfell, B.T. 2001 Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape Science 294 813-817
  17. Keeling, M.J. and Gilligan, C.A. 2000 Metapopulation Dynamics of Bubonic Plague. Nature 407, 903-906
  18. Keeling, M.J., Wilson, H.B. and Pacala, S.W. 2000 Re-interpreting space, time-lags and functional responses in ecological models. Science 290, 1758-176

Further publications

Recent & Current Research grants:
UKRI JUNIPER (Joint UNIversity Pandemic and Epidemic Research) Consortium Nov 2020-May 2022
NIHR HPRU in Genomics and Enabling Data April 2020-Oct 2025
NIHR Mathematical & Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation Oct 2019-Sept 2022
BBSRC Investigating the impact of farmer behaviour and farmer-led control of infectious disease outbreaks in livestock. Oct 2019 - Sept 2023
EPSRC Mathematics for Real-World Systems II, Centre for Doctoral Training. Sept 2019 - Aug 2027
NIHR Global Health Research Group on the Application of Genomics and Modelling to the Control of Virus Pathogens (GeMVi) in East Africa. Apr 2018-Mar 2023
MRC Health Data Research UK for the Midlands. May 2018 - Apr 2023
BMGF <em>Human African Trypanosomiasis Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HATMEPP)</em> Oct 2017-Sept 2025

For more information and further publications see SBIDER homepage or his Expertise profile