Matt Keeling OBE
Office: Mathematical Sciences Bld 5.17
Teaching Responsibilities 2021/22:
Topics in Mathematical Modelling MA999 (MathSys MSc)
My research focuses on the three E's: Epidemiology, Evolution and Ecology. I am particularly interested in how spatial structure, heterogeneities and stochasticity affect the emergent population-level dynamics; as such my work uses a wide range of modelling tools and concepts. While large-scale simulations do play a substantial role in my work, I'm also very keen to develop simple modelling techniques that can capture the important dynamics of a system. The lists below give a flavour of my interests:
Epidemiology: Optimal control of infection, cost-effective vaccination, policy-relevant prediction, within-host immunological dynamics. Disease include: Foot-and-mouth disease, Avian influenza, and Bovine tuberculosis in livestock; and COVID-19, Measles, Whooping Cough, (seasonal and pandemic) Influenza, Pneumococcal infection and Neglected Tropical Diseases in humans.
Evolution: Disease evolution, host response to infection (immuno-epidemiology).
Ecology: Bacteria-phage interactions, spatial habit-use, sea-grass dynamics, quantifying process from pattern..
Development of novel techniques: Pair-wise correlation models, Moment-closure approximations, Meta-population models, Kolmorgorov Forward Equations, Vector dynamics.
Philip Leverhulme Prize in Mathematics (2005)
Royal Zoological Society of London, Scientific Medal (2007)
OBE for services to SAGE during the COVID-19 outbreak (2021)
Current Advisory Memberships.
Royal Society’s International Networks Committee (2007-2014)
Scientific Pandemic Influenza advisory group (Modelling), for Dept Health. (2009- ).
Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation for Dept of Health (2010-)
BBSRC Animal Disease Working Group (2012-)
Current Editorial duties.
Editor, Epidemics (2007-)
Publications. H-index 70, Total Citations >25,000. Publications on google scholar
Selected Recent and Major Publications. (click for a full publication list)
- Moore, S. Hill, E.M., Tildesley, M.J., Dyson, L, & Keeling M.J. (2021) Vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases 21 (6), 793-802
- Davis, C.N., Rock, K.S., Antillón, M., Miaka, E.M. & Keeling, M.J. (2021) Cost-effectiveness modelling to optimise active screening strategy for gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in endemic areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo. BMC medicine 19 (1), 1-18
- Brand, S.P.C. et al (2021) COVID-19 transmission dynamics underlying epidemic waves in Kenya. Science 374 989-994
- Möhlmann, T.W.R., Keeling, M.J., Wennergren, U., Favia, G., Santman-Berends, I., Takken, W., Koenraadt, C.J.M., & Brand, S.P.C. (2021) Biting midge dynamics and bluetongue transmission: a multiscale model linking catch data with climate and disease outbreaks. Scientific Reports 11 (1), 1-16
- Aliee, M., Rock, K.S. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Estimating the distribution of time to extinction of infectious diseases in mean-field approaches. Roy. Soc. Interface 17 (173), 20200540
- Leng, T. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Improving pairwise approximations for network models with susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics. Theo. Biol. 500, 110328
- Moran, E., Robinson, E., Green, C., Keeling, M. & Collyer, B. (2020) Towards personalized guidelines: using machine-learning algorithms to guide antimicrobial selection. Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 75 (9), 2677-2680
- Tennant, W.S.D., Tildesley, M.J., Spencer, S.E.F. & Keeling, M.J. (2020) Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898–1949. Roy. Soc. B 287 (1928), 20200538
- Datta, S., Pink, J., Medley, G.F., Petrou, S., Staniszewska, S., Underwood, M., Sonnenberg, P. & Keeling, M.J. (2019) Assessing the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination strategies for adolescent girls and boys in the UK. BMC Infectious Diseases. 19 552
- Keeling, M.J., Datta, S., Franklin, D.N., Flatman, I., Wattam, A., Brown, M. & Budge, G.E. (2017) Efficient use of sentinel sites: detection of invasive honeybee pests and diseases in the UK. Roy. Soc. Interface 14 20160908
- Brooks-Pollock, E., Roberts, G.O. and Keeling, M.J. (2014) A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain. Nature 511 228-
- Keeling, M.J., Danon, L., Vernon, M.C., and House, T.A. (2010) Individual identity and movement networks for disease metapopulations. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107 8866-70
- Savill, N., St. Rose, S., Keeling, M., Woolhouse, M. 2006 Silent spread of H5N1 in vaccinated poultry. Nature 442 757-757
- Tildesley, M.J., Savill, N.J., Shaw, D.J., Deardon, R., Brooks, S.P., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Grenfell, B.T. and Keeling, M.J. 2006 Optimal reactive vaccination strategies for a foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Nature 440 83-86.
- Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., May, R.M., Davies, G. and Grenfell, B.T. 2003 Modelling Vaccination Strategies against Foot and Mouth Disease. Nature 421 136-142
- Keeling, M.J., Woolhouse, M.E.J., Shaw, D.J., Matthews, L., Chase-Topping, M., Haydon, D.T., Cornell, S.J., Kappey, J., Wilsmith, J. and Grenfell, B.T. 2001 Dynamics of the 2001 UK Foot and Mouth Epidemic: Stochastic Dispersal in a Heterogeneous Landscape Science 294 813-817
- Keeling, M.J. and Gilligan, C.A. 2000 Metapopulation Dynamics of Bubonic Plague. Nature 407, 903-906
- Keeling, M.J., Wilson, H.B. and Pacala, S.W. 2000 Re-interpreting space, time-lags and functional responses in ecological models. Science 290, 1758-176
Recent & Current Research grants:
UKRI JUNIPER (Joint UNIversity Pandemic and Epidemic Research) Consortium Nov 2020-May 2022
NIHR HPRU in Genomics and Enabling Data April 2020-Oct 2025
NIHR Mathematical & Economic Modelling for Vaccination and Immunisation Evaluation Oct 2019-Sept 2022
BBSRC Investigating the impact of farmer behaviour and farmer-led control of infectious disease outbreaks in livestock. Oct 2019 - Sept 2023
EPSRC Mathematics for Real-World Systems II, Centre for Doctoral Training. Sept 2019 - Aug 2027
NIHR Global Health Research Group on the Application of Genomics and Modelling to the Control of Virus Pathogens (GeMVi) in East Africa. Apr 2018-Mar 2023
MRC Health Data Research UK for the Midlands. May 2018 - Apr 2023
BMGF <em>Human African Trypanosomiasis Modelling and Economic Predictions for Policy (HATMEPP)</em> Oct 2017-Sept 2025