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Collective Uncertainty Project

Aim: - to apply Collective Uncertainty to individual clinical scenarios

- to assess Uncertainty Measure as the fundamental criterion for eligibility for a trial


After successful pilot with retrospective calcaneal fracture cases, the project is incorporated into the UK Heel Fracture Trial (HeFT). Same facilities and database will be used to provide unique opportunity to compare prognosis and results of implemented treatment and to validate Uncertainty Measure for use in future surgical trials.


Project Workflow
New Case A patient is consented for participation in the Collective Uncertainty Study by a Research Assistant/PI involved in the UK HeFT in the 6 weeks calcaneal fracture follow up clinic. Even those patients who (for various reasons...) do not take part in the mainstream UK HeFT can be invited to consent for this study, as it does not affect their management but will contribute to our database.
Cases published Clinical cases are published after 6 weeks follow up clinic documents together with signed consent are received by the UK HeFT Central Office. Links emailed to collaborating surgeons. Surgeons alerted about a new case posting by SMS (optional).

Participants follow a link, sign in and vote.


Primary data analysis processed (May 2008)

  • continue collecting data from the UK HeFT
  • explore views of participants, both patients and surgeons
  • introduce measurement of collective unceratinty as criterion for offering a patient participation in a Randomised Controlled Trial
Queries, comments Please, send to


Primary Analysis (EFORT e-poster)

Expert Panel

  • M Blakemore University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire
  • M Costa University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire
  • M Krkovic University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire
  • M Phillips Kings College Hospital, London
  • A Robinson Addenbrooke's Hospital, Cambridge
  • AD Patel Norfolk and Norwich University Hospitals
  • A Hui South Tees Hospitals
  • A Kelly Musgrove Park Hospital, Taunton
  • C Blundell Northern General Hospital, Sheffield
  • N Makwana Wrexham Maelor Hospital
  • M Davies Northern General Hospital, Sheffield
  • A Henderson Royal Bolton Hospital
  • A Molloy Aintree University Hospital
  • C Butcher Aintree University Hospital