Speaker: Dr Wenjuan Zhang

Title: Whole life cost modelling in asset management and other research interests

Date: Wednesday 14^th November 2012

Venue: Room E2.02, WBS Social Sciences

Time: 14.00 hrs

Abstract: In the first half of the talk, Wenjuan will give a broad picture of her research interests, which include reliability modelling, asset management, demand analysis and load forecasting. She will also introduce some projects that she has been involved in over the years in these areas. For the second half of the talk, she will focus on one of her current research interests - whole life cost modelling.

In asset management, the whole life cost (WLC) models are normally adopted to achieve two broad strategic objectives: to ensure sufficient funding is available to maintain the asset portfolio; and to ensure a minimum WLC is achieved while maintaining safety. WLC models have been attracting a great deal of attention from industries, especially those maintaining public infrastructures. The cost of maintaining these long lived assets are huge, as WLC models can help to identify the optimal maintenance with least WLC and ultimately reduce cost, so the benefit of applying WLC modelling is substantial. WLC models can also be used to forecast work volumes, output and expenditure for a portfolio of assets, which can assist in decision making, and investment and business planning. When objective data and information required for carrying out WLC models are not sufficient in quantity and quality, detailed information can be gathered for a sample of assets for the WLC analysis. Experts’ knowledge is also elicited, which is a rich source of prior information for a Bayesian analysis. Linear Bayes methods are used to combine the sample data with the experts’ knowledge, to make estimates of the costs and timing of various interventions. WLC models can then be built based on these estimates. We present a WLC model in the context of a case study from the rail industry.

Biography: Dr Wenjuan Zhang is an Assistant Professor in the ORMS group at Warwick Business School. Previously, she held a position as statistical consultant in the Risk Initiative & Statistical Consultancy Unit (RISCU) within the Department of Statistics at Warwick University. She has worked on over 20 research and consultancy projects from a wide range of clients from industry, commerce and the public sector including Unilever, National Grid, NHS, London Underground, etc. One of the major projects she has worked on – the Engineering Strategy for Economic and Efficient Management (ESTEEM) project with London Underground – was awarded the 2010 IET Innovation Award by the Institution of Engineering and Technology, in the Asset Management category.

Contact: Jo Lea

ORMS@wbs.ac.uk

Tel: 024 76522723