Expert Comment

“The condemnation of Marine Le Pen leaves both the far-right leader and French democracy in a precarious position. Le Pen has now twice been found guilty of embezzlement. A significant part of her electorate won’t care a jot, and the verdict may not threaten her chances to make it to the run-off of the 2027 presidential elections. It does however expose the hypocrisy and the delinquency of a candidate and a party which long railed against politicians’ corruption. This might not help her win over the 15-20% of voters she needs to finally move into the Elysée Palace. Her capacity to run her campaign to its conclusion also depends on the eventual ruling of the Cour de Cassation (supreme court) which could still keep her name off the ballot. Jordan Bardella would theoretically stand in her stead, but he and their party would face significant logistical challenges.

"Le Pen is waging that the court will not prevent her from standing. Her latest sentence was reduced by the court of appeal on account of a recent decision by the constitutional council whose benches are filled with political appointees of dubious or non-existent legal credentials. Both courts invoked the freedom of the electorate as if the National Rally - or any other party for that matter - would not be able to field any other candidate should their preferred delinquent be barred. This speaks to the fragility of the rule of law in France. The deterioration of US democracy during Trump’s second term has exposed the critical weakness of liberal judicial systems and institutions in face of a relentless, shameless assault of corrupt politicians and parties. The next few months may very well reveal the legal fragility of the French Republic.”