40 years of homicide: landmark long-term study finds deep-rooted inequalities in patterns of lethal violence

A study led by the University of Warwick examining more than 40 years of homicide trends has revealed generational, gendered, and racial inequalities.

The first detailed long-term study of homicide trends in England and Wales was presented at a research symposium at the Royal Society of Arts, London, on 22 September, in partnership with charity SAMM (Support After Murder and Manslaughter), and ahead of the National Day of Remembrance for Victims of Homicide on 25 September.

The symposium discussion panel brought together academics, policymakers, and NGOs, and included Claire Waxman OBE, the Victims’ Commissioner, and Dame Nicole Jacobs, the Domestic Abuse Commissioner.

Key findings of the study, Contemporary Long-Term Homicide Trends in England and Wales (1977–2019) include:

Generational impact of politics: Those who grew up during the Thatcher era were at greater risk of homicide across their life course, showing how political and social contexts can shape vulnerability to violence.
Racialised access to justice: Young Black male victims are disproportionately affected by homicide as they are less likely to have a suspect identified; even when suspects are identified, their cases are more likely to end in acquittal.
Gendered patterns of violence: While women’s risk of homicide has declined over time, it remains overwhelmingly rooted in familial and intimate relationships. By contrast, men’s homicide risk has risen sharply over the last 40 years, especially among younger men, a trend that remains poorly understood and often overlooked.

Dr Emily Gray, Assistant Professor of Sociology at the University of Warwick, and the study’s lead researcher, said “Our research shows that homicide fluctuates alongside policy environments. Inequalities and wider social and cultural change all shape lethal violence. Some developments have saved lives, while others have made things worse. Governments, institutions, and communities have the power not only to reduce violence, but also to determine how its consequences are felt — particularly for families left behind.”

Claire Waxman OBE, Victims’ Commissioner for London, added, “All too often, families bereaved by murder or manslaughter are made to feel that their needs are peripheral throughout the criminal justice process. I welcome that this symposium brings their lived experiences into sharp focus. Their insights and expertise, alongside data on long-term homicide trends, are essential to shaping a fairer, more trauma-informed justice system that centres the rights of victims and their families.”

Joanne Early, CEO of SAMM (Support After Murder and Manslaughter) charity said, “This is the first in-depth study of its kind, and in a world where very little research in the field of homicide exists, there has never been a more important time to reflect on the results and help reduce the number of homicides in England and Wales. The research shows that generational policy and legislation has influenced the numbers of homicides over four decades and the current government must not ignore this key finding to ensure knife crime, violence against women and girls, and other deaths by violence, are reduced.”

The ESRC-funded study was led by Dr Emily Gray of the University of Warwick, in collaboration with Professor Stephen Farrall of the University of Nottingham, and Professor Andromachi Tseloni of Nottingham Trent University.

ENDS

Notes to Editors

The National Day of Remembrance for Victims of Homicide is marked in both the US and the UK on 25 September.

Jo Early, CEO of SAMM said “We must never forget those who lives were cut short by homicide and the bereaved families left to suffer without their loved ones. Homicide is a life sentence for the families affected, and we are asking everyone to show their support for bereaved families and light a candle on 25th September in memory of those taken too soon.”

Available for Interview – please contact the University of Warwick Press Office to arrange:

· Study lead author Dr Emily Gray, University of Warwick

· Study co-investigator Professor Andromachi Tseloni, Nottingham Trent University

· Study co-investigator Professor Stephen Farrall, University of Nottingham

· SAMM (Support After Murder and Manslaughter) charity CEO Joanne Early

Media Assets

Short film Lives Disrupted: 40 Years of Violence and Change - premiered at the symposium

For more information please contact:

Ann Baylis, Media and Communication Officer

ann.baylis@warwick.ac.uk / 07876 876937

About the University of Warwick

Founded in 1965, the University of Warwick is a world-leading institution known for its commitment to era-defining innovation across research and education. A connected ecosystem of staff, students and alumni, the University fosters transformative learning, interdisciplinary collaboration and bold industry partnerships across state-of-the-art facilities in the UK and global satellite hubs. Here, spirited thinkers push boundaries, experiment and challenge convention to create a better world.

24 September 2025