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“How the US reacts in the next few hours will set the tone and be crucial in terms of the way ahead.”

Dr Trevor McCrisken comments on the news that Iran's Revolutionary Guard shot down a U.S. drone on Thursday. The incident is confirmed but the location of the drone is disputed:-

“This is highly provocative by Iran if the drone was in international airspace, highly provocative by US if in Iranian airspace – but very difficult to verify either way independently.

“The bottom line is that neither side actually wants war as the consequences for both would be catastrophic despite there being influential voices on both sides calling for it.

“Iran has not only flexed its muscles here but also shown its capabilities. This is not Iraq or Afghanistan - Iran is not to be trifled with.

“My expectation is an elevated war of words, more US forces to the region, but calm heads to prevail - Trump doesn’t actually want war for all his bravado - but these situations can gain a life of their own and it could escalate very quickly.”

20 June 2019

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