Ben Gannon, Teaching Fellow in US Politics and US Foreign Policy in the Department of Politics and International Studies, looks ahead to the US mid-terms and highlights some key issues to watch:

• Early polling suggests this could be a record midterm turnout (it already is in some states). Which creates a big 'unknown' factor in terms of whether that has an implication in what is traditionally a very low turnout election.
• The cautious consensus in Washington is that Democrats will probably take the House of Representatives but Republicans keep the Senate. But given Trump's ability to pull off a surprise victory, lots of caution abounds.
• Trump's intense narrative on immigration is likely to play better in the more rural senate races than the suburban house races. Some GOP leaders annoyed he hasn't focused on the economy. Is this a sign he's already "given up" on the house?
• Two key governorships to watch are Florida and Georgia, in which you have two African American candidates for the democrats running neck and neck with conservative Republicans in what has become a campaign with accusations of racial undertones in the attack ads.
• Election will be seen as a referendum on Trump Administration so far. Whatever the result, it will have big implications for the strategies and behaviours of both parties ahead of 2020.

6 November 2018

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