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New Report Predicts a Decade of Sustained Low Unemployment With 2 Million More New Jobs by 2010

Originally Published 25 April 2001
A new report by the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick predicts that the decade leading up to 2010 is expected to bring 2 million additional jobs to the UK, sustaining the UK's historically low level of unemployment. Some of the other key findings of the report entitled Projections of Occupations and Qualifications, 2000/2001 include:
  • Between 1999 and 2010 there are expected to be over 2.0 million additional jobs.
  • The level of unemployment is expected to remain stable at historically low levels.
  • The long-term decline in employment in manufacturing and the primary sector (agriculture, mining and utilities) is expected to continue, with a loss of around three quarters of of a million jobs between 1999 and 2010.
  • Services are projected to be the main source of extra jobs, with increases in distribution, hotels & catering , business & miscellaneous services, health & education services
  • Just over two-thirds of all the additional jobs are expected to be taken by women.
  • Part-time employment is expected to account for most of the increase in total employment although there is some recovery in the number of full-time jobs.
  • The share of self-employment is expected to decline over the next decade.

Employment increases are anticipated for:

  • professional occupations - around 900 thousand jobs;
  • associate professional & technical occupations - about 800 thousand jobs;
  • personal service occupations - around 650 thousand jobs;
  • sales occupations - Smaller increases of around 180 thousand jobs are projected

Declining employment is anticipated for:

  • skilled trades occupations - about 200 thousand jobs;
  • process, plant & machine operatives - some 100 thousand jobs;
  • elementary occupations - around 200 thousand jobs;

The report also notes the importance of "replacement demands" as well as net changes. For all occupations, replacement demand (including replacing retirees) is over 5 times larger than expansion demand. Between 1999 & 2010 there is expected to be a net requirement of 13 and a half million job openings. Retirements are the principal component in this estimate.

Note for Editors: The 2 volume report was compiled by the Institute for Employment Research at the University of Warwick with Cambridge Econometrics. It is part of a programme carried out on behalf of the Department for Education & Employment (DfEE). Both volumes of the report are available on the Skillsbase web at

For further details please contact:

Dr Robert Wilson, Institute for Employment Research
University of Warwick
Tel: 024 76 523530,

Further information about the above press release and all other media services at the University of Warwick can be obtained from:

Peter Dunn, Press Officer
Public Affairs Office
Senate House
University of Warwick
Coventry, CV4 7AL
West Midlands
Tel: 024 76 523708