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SleeplessAI: Discovering Latent Sleep Signatures for Equitable Cardiometabolic Risk Prediction using AI on EHR and Molecular Data
Secondary Supervisor(s): Dr Samiul Mostafa
University of Registration: University of Birmingham
BBSRC Research Themes:
Project Outline
Cardiometabolic diseases (CVMD)-specifically Type 2 Diabetes and cardiovascular conditions-disproportionately impact South Asian populations. This project investigates under-utilized, non-apnoea sleep abnormalities as biological mediators of CVMD. Building on extensive AI experience and preliminary data confirming sleep interventions improve metabolic markers, we aim to discover ""latent sleep signatures"" from primary care electronic health records (EHRs) to augment established risk calculators like QRISK3 and QDiabetes.
The methodology spans four phases. Phase 1 focuses on community co-design, collaborating with a Community Advisory Board to identify culturally specific, stigmatized sleep symptoms, map pharmacological confounders, and extract longitudinal EHR data for unsupervised clustering. Phase 2 employs dual-track predictive modelling to compare traditional machine learning (e.g., XGBoost) trained on structured tabular data against open-weight Large Language Models (LLMs) trained on semantic EHR narratives. We will benchmark standard versus Chain-of-Thought (CoT) fine-tuning and contrast Explainable AI (SHAP) with generative clinical reasoning to quantify incremental prognostic gain. Phase 3 ensures cross-population equity by rigorously enforcing fairness between South Asian and White European cohorts using Group Calibration, Equalized Odds, and Predictive Parity, applying both in-processing and post-processing bias mitigation. Phase 4 finalizes clinical translation via external validation using UK Biobank linkages, expert clinical auditing of AI reasoning pathways, and continuous community co-production to translate algorithmic outputs into culturally sensitive clinical tools.
The initial analysis of this project will focus on CPRD data (Data Extracted under Protocol: ID: 22_001968)