WIDER Activities

Although there are a multitude of elements to the research within the WIDER group, it is possible to break our interests into three main sections: Technical and Methodological Developments; Infectious Diseases of Humans; and Infectious Diseases of Animals.

Click on a link below to find out more about our recent and current research.

Methodology

Development

of novel techniques, motivated by problems in infectious diseases. Much of this research feeds into our more applied work.

Examples include: networks, stochasticity and statistical methods.

Human Infections

Research into a range of human infectious diseases, often driven by an applied need to address pressing public health problems.

Examples include: HIV, Neglected Tropical Diseases and vaccination against HPV.

Animal Infections

Many livestock species suffer from infectious diseases. Combinations of field-work, lab studies, statistics and mathematical modelling seeks to better understand these diseases.

Examples include: bTB, FMD and Footrot.

Recent Selected Publications

2016

Dickins, A., Clark, C.C.A., Kaler, J., Ferguson, E., O'Kane, H., Green, L.E. (2016) Factors associated with the presence and prevalence of contagious ovine digital dermatitis: A 2013 study of 1136 random English sheep flocks. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 130 86 - 93

Kiti, M.C., Tizzoni, M., Kinyanjui, T.M., Koech, D.C., Munywoki, P.K., Meriac, M., Cappa, L., Panisson, A., Barrat, A., Cattuto, C., Nokes, D.J. (2016) Quantifying social contacts in a household setting of rural Kenya using wearable proximity sensors. EPJ Data Science 5, art. no. 21

Brand, S.P.C., Rock, K.S., Keeling, M.J. (2016) The Interaction between Vector Life History and Short Vector Life in Vector-Borne Disease Transmission and Control. PLoS Comp. Biol. 12 e100483721

Irvine, M.A., Jackson, E.L., Kenyon, E.J., Cook, K.J., Keeling, M.J., Bull, J.C. (2016) Fractal measures of spatial pattern as a heuristic for return rate in vegetative systems. Royal Society Open Science 3 150519

Grant, C., Smith, E.M., Green, L.E. (2016) A longitudinal study of factors associated with acute and chronic mastitis and their impact on lamb growth rate in 10 suckler sheep flocks in Great Britain. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 127 27 - 36

Irvine, M. A., Njenga, S. M., Gunawardena, S., Wamae, C. N., Cano, J., Brooker, S. J., Hollingsworth, T. D. (2016). Understanding the relationship between prevalence of microfilariae and antigenaemia using a model of lymphatic filariasis infection. Transactions of The Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 110(2), 118-124.

Irvine, M.A., Bull, J.C., Keeling, M.J. (2016) Aggregation dynamics explain vegetation patch-size distributions. Theoretical Population Biology , 108 70 - 74

2015

Winter, J.R., Kaler, J., Ferguson, E., KilBride, A.L., Green, L.E. (2015) Changes in prevalence of, and risk factors for, lameness in random samples of English sheep flocks: 2004-2013. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 122 121 - 128 .

Medley, G.F., Hollingsworth, T.D., Olliaro, P.L. and Adams, E.R. (2015) Health-seeking behaviour, diagnostics and transmission dynamics in the control of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent. Nature 528 S102-S108.

Moraga, P., Cano, J., Baggaley, R.F., Gyapong, J.O., Njenga, S.M., Nikolay, B., Davies, E., Rebollo, M.P., Pullan, R.L., Bockarie, M.J., Hollingsworth, T.D., Gambhir, M., Brooker, S.J. (2015) Modelling the distribution and transmission intensity of lymphatic filariasis in sub-Saharan Africa prior to scaling up interventions: Integrated use of geostatistical and mathematical modelling. Parasites & Vectors. 8 560

Irvine, M.A., Reimer, L.J., Njenga, S.M., Gunawardena, S., Kelly-Hope, L., Bockarie, M., Hollingsworth, T.D. (2015) Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis - aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination Quantitative analysis of strategies to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases: where are we now? Parasites & Vectors. 8 1152

Rock, K.S., Torr, S.J., Lumbala, C., Keeling, M.J. (2015) Quantitative evaluation of the strategy to eliminate human African trypanosomiasis in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Parasites & Vectors. 8 1131

Crump, R.E., Medley, G.F. (2015) Back-calculating the incidence of infection of leprosy in a Bayesian framework. Parasites & Vectors. 8 1142

Chapman, L.A.C., Dyson, L., Courtenay, O., Chowdhury, R., Bern, C., Medley, G.F., Hollingsworth, T.D. (2015) Quantification of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis and consequences for control. Parasites & Vectors. 8 1136

Smith, E.M., Willis, Z.N., Blakeley, M., Lovatt, F., Purdy, K.J., Green, L.E. (2015) Bacterial species and their associations with acute and chronic mastitis in suckler ewes. Journal of Dairy Science 98 7025 - 7033

Spencer, S.E.F., Besser, T.E., Cobbold, R.N., French, N.P. (2015) 'Super' or just 'above average'? Supershedders and the transmission of Escherichia coli O157:H7 among feedlot cattle. J. Roy. Soc. Interface. 12 20150446

Geard, N., Glass, K., McCaw, J.M., McBryde, E.S., Korb, K.B., Keeling, M.J., McVernon, J. (2015) The effects of demographic change on disease transmission and vaccine impact in a household structured population. Epidemics 13 56 - 64

Medley, G.F., Hollingsworth, T.D. (2015) MDA helminth control: More questions than answers. The Lancet Global Health 3 ( 10 ) e583 - e584

Fowler, A.C., Déirdre Hollingsworth, T. (2015) Simple Approximations for Epidemics with Exponential and Fixed Infectious Periods. Bull. Math. Biol. (in press)

Pellis, L., House, T., Keeling, M.J (2015) Exact and approximate moment closures for non-Markovian network epidemics. Journal of Theoretical Biology 382 160 - 177

Rock, K.S., le Rutte, E.A., de Vlas, S.J., Adams, E.R., Medley, G.F., Hollingsworth, T.D. (2015) Uniting mathematics and biology for control of visceral leishmaniasis. Trends in Parasitology 31 251 - 259

Pellis, L., Spencer, S.E.F., House, T. (2015) Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks. Mathematical Biosciences
265 65 - 81

Dawson, P.M., Werkman, M., Brooks-Pollock, E., Tildesley, M.J. (2015) Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: Modelling disease spread with partial data. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 282 1 - 9

Truscott, J., Hollingsworth, T.D., Anderson, R. (2015) Modeling the Interruption of the Transmission of Soil-Transmitted Helminths by Repeated Mass Chemotherapy of School-Age Children. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 8 e33239

Pellis, L., Ball, F., Bansal, S., Eames, K., House, T., Isham, V., Trapman, P. (2015) Eight challenges for network epidemic models. Epidemics 10 58 - 62 .

Brooks-Pollock, E., de Jong, M.C.M., Keeling, M.J., Klinkenberg, D., Wood, J.L.N. (2015) Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases. Epidemics 10 1-5

Rock, K.S., Wood, D.A., Keeling, M.J. (2015) Age- and bite-structured models for vector-borne diseases. Epidemics (in press).

Baggaley, R.F., Hollingsworth, T.D. (2015) Brief report: HIV-1 transmissions during asymptomatic infection: Exploring the impact of changes in HIV-1 viral load due to coinfections. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 68 594 - 598

Hollingsworth, T.D., Pulliam, J.R.C., Funk, S., Truscott, J.E., Isham, V., Lloyd, A.L. (2015) Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases. Epidemics (in press)

Metcalf, C.J.E., Andreasen, V., Bjørnstad, O.N., Eames, K., Edmunds, W.J., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T.D., Lessler, J., Viboud, C., Grenfell, B.T. (2015) Seven challenges in modeling vaccine preventable diseases. Epidemics (in press)

Ball, F., Britton, T., House, T., Isham, V., Mollison, D., Pellis, L., Scalia Tomba, G. (2015) Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models. Epidemics (in press)

Heesterbeek, H., Anderson, R.M., Andreasen, V., Bansal, S., de Angellis, D., Dye, C., Eames, K.T.D., Edmunds, W.J., Frost, S.D.W., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T.D., House, T., Isham, V., Klepac, P., Lessler, J., Lloyd-Smith, J.O., Metcalf, C.J.E., Mollison, D., Pellis, L., Pulliam, J.R.C., Roberts, M.G., Viboud, C., Isaac Newton Institute IDD Collaboration (2015) Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health. Science 347 6227

Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2015) Optimal prophylactic vaccination in segregated populations: When can we improve on the equalising strategy? Epidemics 11 7-13

Brand, S.P.C., Tildesley, M.J., Keeling, M.J (2015) Rapid simulation of spatial epidemics: A spectral method. J. Theo. Biol. 370 121-134

Rock, K.S., Stone, C.M., Hastings, I.M., Keeling, M.J., Torr, S.J., Chitnis, N (2015) Mathematical Models of Human African Trypanosomiasis Epidemiology. Advances in Parasitology 87 53-133

Griffin, J.T., Déirdre Hollingsworth, T., Reyburn, H., Drakeley, C.J., Riley, E.M., Ghani, A.C. (2015) Gradual acquisition of immunity to severe malaria with increasing exposure. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 282 8

Baggaley, R.F., Hollingsworth, T.D. (2015) HIV-1 transmissions during asymptomatic infection: exploring the impact of changes in HIV-1 viral load due to coinfections. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. (in press)

2014

Klepac, P., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T.D., Metcalf, C.J.E., Hampson, K. (2014) Six challenges in the eradication of infectious diseases. Epidemics (in press)

Hancock, P.A., Rehman, Y., Hall, I.M., Edeghere, O., Danon, L., House, T.A., Keeling, M.J. (2014) Strategies for controlling non-transmissible infection outbreaks using a large human movement data set. PLoS Comp. Biol. 10 e1003809.

Lessler, J., Edmunds, W.J., Halloran, M.E., Hollingsworth, T.D., Lloyd, A.L. (2014) Seven challenges for model-driven data collection in experimental and observational studies. Epidemics (in press)

Matlashewski, G., Arana, B., Kroeger, A., Be-Nazir, A., Mondal, D., Nabi, S.G., Banjara, M.R., Das, M.L., Marasini, B., Das, P., Medley, G., Satoskar, A., Nakhasi, H., Argaw, D., Reeder, J., Olliaro, P. (2014) Research priorities for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis. The Lancet Global Health 2 e683 - e684

Smith, E.M., Green, O.D.J., Calvo-Bado, L.A., Witcomb, L.A., Grogono-Thomas, R., Russell, C.L., Brown, J.C., Medley, G.F., KilBride, A.L., Wellington, E.M.H., Green, L.E. (2014) Dynamics and impact of footrot and climate on hoof horn length in 50 ewes from one farm over a period of 10 months. Veterinary Journal 201 295 - 301

Oates, C.J., Amos, R., Spencer, S.E.F. (2014) Quantifying the multi-scale performance of network inference algorithms. Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, 13 ( 5 ) 611 - 631

Pinsent, A., Read, J.M., Griffin, J.T., Smith, V., Gething, P.W., Ghani, A.C., Pasvol, G., Hollingsworth, T.D. (2014) Risk factors for UK Plasmodium falciparum cases. Malaria Journal 13 ( 1 ) , art. no. 298

Pellis, L., Ball, F., Bansal, S., Eames, K., House, T., Isham, V., Trapman, P. (2014) Eight challenges for network epidemic models. Epidemics.

Truscott, J.E., Déirdre Hollingsworth, T., Brooker, S.J., Anderson, R.M. (2014) Can chemotherapy alone eliminate the transmission of soil transmitted helminths? Parasites and Vectors 7 art. no. 266

Gortazar, C., Reperant, L.A., Kuiken, T., de la Fuente, J., Boadella, M., Martínez-Lopez, B., Ruiz-Fons, F., Estrada-Peña, A., Drosten, C., Medley, G., Ostfeld, R., Peterson, T., VerCauteren, K.C., Menge, C., Artois, M., Schultsz, C., Delahay, R., Serra-Cobo, J., Poulin, R., Keck, F., Aguirre, A.A., Henttonen, H., Dobson, A.P., Kutz, S., Lubroth, J., Mysterud, A. (2014) Crossing the Interspecies Barrier: Opening the Door to Zoonotic Pathogens. PLoS Pathogens 10 art. no. e1004129

Brooks-Pollock, E., Roberts, G.O., Keeling, M.J. (2014) A dynamic model of bovine tuberculosis spread and control in Great Britain. Nature 511 228-231

Britton, T., House, T., Lloyd, A.L., Mollison, D., Riley, S., Trapman, P. (2014) Challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission. Epidemics. (in press).

Black, A.J., House, T., Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2014) The effect of clumped population structure on the variability of spreading dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology 359 45 - 53

House, T. (2014) Non-Markovian stochastic epidemics in extremely heterogeneous populations. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 9 153 - 160

Graham, M., House, T. (2014) Dynamics of stochastic epidemics on heterogeneous networks. Journal of Mathematical Biology 68 1583 - 1605

Buhnerkempe, M.G., Tildesley, M.J., Lindström, T., Grear, D.A., Portacci, K., Miller, R.S., Lombard, J.E., Werkman, M., Keeling, M.J., Wennergren, U., Webb, C.T. (2014) The impact of movements and animal density on continental scale cattle disease outbreaks in the United States. PLoS ONE 9 e91724

Fraser, C., Lythgoe, K., Leventhal, G.E., Shirreff, G., Hollingsworth, T.D., Alizon, S., Bonhoeffer, S. (2014) Virulence and pathogenesis of HIV-1 infection: An evolutionary perspective. Science, 343 ( 6177 ) , art. no. 1243727

Agoti, C.N., Mayieka, L.M., Otieno, J.R., Ahmed, J.A., Fields, B.S., Waiboci, L.W., Nyoka, R., Eidex, R.B., Marano, N., Burton, W., Montgomery, J.M., Breiman, R.F., Nokes, D.J. (2014) Examining strain diversity and phylogeography in relation to an unusual epidemic pattern of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in a long-term refugee camp in Kenya. BMC Infectious Diseases 14 art no 178

House, T. (2014) Heterogeneous clustered random graphs. European Physics Letters 105 art no 68006

Gomes, M.G.M, Lipsitch, M., Wargo, A.R., Kurath, G., Rebelo, C., Medley, G.F. & Coutinho, A. (2014) A missing dimension in measures of vaccination impacts. PLoS Pathog 10(3): e1003849. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1003849

Russell, C.L., Smith, E.M., Calvo-Bado, L.A., Green, L.E., Wellington, E.M.H., Medley, G.F., Moore, L.J., Grogono-Thomas, R. (2014) Multiple locus VNTR analysis highlights that geographical clustering and distribution of Dichelobacter nodosus, the causal agent of footrot in sheep, correlates with inter-country movements. Infection, Genetics and Evolution 22 273 - 279

Barons, M.J., Griffiths, F.E., Parsons, N., Alba, A., Thorogood, M., Medley, G.F., Lamb, S.E. (2014) Matching patients to an intervention for back pain: Classifying patients using a latent class approach. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice

Ritchie, M., Berthouze, L., House, T., Kiss, I.Z (2014) Higher-order structure and epidemic dynamics in clustered networks. Journal of Theoretical Biology ,
348 21 - 32

Rock, K., Brand, S., Moir, J., Keeling, M.J. (2014) Dynamics of infectious diseases. Reports on Progress in Physics , 77 ( 2 ) , art. no. 026602

Inglis, N.J., Bagnall, H., Janmohamed, K., Suleman, S., Awofisayo, A., De Souza, V., Smit, E., Pebody, R., Mohamed, H., Ibbotson, S., Smith, G.E., House, T., Olowokure, B. (2014) Measuring the effect of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09: the epidemiological experience in the West Midlands, England during the 'containment' phase. Epidemiology and infection 142 428 - 437

2013

Agoti, C.N., Gitahi, C.W., Medley, G.F., Cane, P.A., Nokes, D.J. (2013) Identification of group B respiratory syncytial viruses that lack the 60-nucleotide duplication after six consecutive epidemics of total BA dominance at coastal Kenya. Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses 7 1008 - 1012

Datta, S., Bull, J.C., Budge G.E. and Keeling, M.J. (2013) Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10 (88) 20130650

Hollingsworth, T.D., Truscott, J.E., Anderson, R.M. (2013) Transmission Dynamics of Ascaris lumbricoides - Theory and Observation. Ascaris: The Neglected Parasite
pp. 231 - 262

Sande, C.J., Mutunga, M.N., Okiro, E.A., Medley, G.F., Cane, P.A., Nokes, D.J. (2013) Kinetics of the neutralizing antibody response to respiratory syncytial virus infections in a birth cohort. Journal of Medical Virology 85 2020 - 2025

House, T., Rhodes, C.A. (2013) The rate of convergence to early asymptotic behaviour in age-structured epidemic models. Theo. Pop. Biol. 85 58-62

Danon, L., Read, J.M., House, T.A., Vernon, M.C., Keeling, M.J. (2013) Social encounter networks: Characterizing great Britain. Proc Roy Soc Lond B. 280 1765

Valadez, J.J., Berendes, S., Jeffery, C., Thomson, J., Ben Othman, H., Danon, L., Turki, A.A., Saffialden, R., Mirzoyan, L. (2013) Filling the Knowledge Gap: Measuring HIV Prevalence and Risk Factors among Men Who Have Sex with Men and Female Sex Workers in Tripoli, Libya. PLoS ONE 8 e66701

Russell, C.L., Smith, E.M., Calvo-Bado, L.A., Green, L.E., Wellington, E.M.H., Medley, G.F., Moore, L.J., Grogono-Thomas, R. (2013) Multiple locus VNTR analysis highlights that geographical clustering and distribution of Dichelobacter nodosus, the causal agent of footrot in sheep, correlates with inter-country movements. Infection, Genetics & Evolution (in press)

Szmaragd, C., Green, L.E., Medley, G.F., Browne, W.J. (2013) Factors associated with herd restriction and de-restriction with bovine tuberculosis in British cattle herds. Prev. Vet. Med. 111 31-41.

Anderson, L.J., Dormitzer, P.R., Nokes, D.J., Rappuoli, R., Roca, A., Graham, B.S. (2013) Strategic priorities for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine development. Vaccine 31 B209-215

Graham, M., House, T. (2013) Dynamics of stochastic epidemics on heterogeneous networks. J. Math. Biol. (in press)

Black, A., House, T., Keeling, M.J., Ross, J.V. (2013) Epidemiological consequences of household-based antiviral prophylaxis for pandemic influenza. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 10 (81) (2013) 20121019

Webb, S.D., Keeling, M.J., Boots, M. (2013) The role of spatial population structure on the evolution of parasites with acquired immunity and demography. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 324, 21-31.

Blanchet, J., Roberts, G. (2013) Editorial foreword to special issue on Simulation of Stochastic Networks and related topics. Queueing Systems, 73 (4), 341-343.

Russell, V.N.L., Green, L.E., Bishop, S.C., Medley, G.F. (2013) The interaction of host genetics and disease processes in chronic livestock disease: A simulation model of ovine footrot. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 108 (4), 294-303.

Webb, S.D., Keeling, M.J., Boots, M. (2013) A theoretical study of the role of spatial population structure in the evolution of parasite virulence. Theoretical Population Biology, 84 (1) 36-45.

Lobelle, D., Kenyon, E.J., Cook, K.J., Bull, J.C. (2013) Local Competition and Metapopulation Processes Drive Long-Term Seagrass-Epiphyte Population Dynamics. PLoS ONE, 8 (2), art. no. e57072

House, T., Ross, J.V., Sirl, D. (2013) How big is an outbreak likely to be? Methods for epidemic final-size calculation. Proceedings of the Royal Society A 469 (2150), art. no. 0436

Sande, C.J., Mutunga, M.N., Medley, G.F., Cane, P.A., James Nokes, D. (2013)Group-and genotype-specific neutralizing antibody responses against respiratory syncytial virus in infants and young children with severe pneumonia. Journal of Infectious Diseases, 207 489-492.

Medley, G.F., Green, L.E. (2013) Enhancing the sensitivity of tests for bovine TB. Veterinary Record, 172 96-97.

Sutherland, W.J., et al (2013) Identification of 100 fundamental ecological questions. Journal of Ecology, 101 58-67

2012

House T, Inglis N, Ross JV, Wilson F, Suleman S, Edeghere O, Smith G, Olowokure B, Keeling MJ (2012) Estimation of outbreak severity and transmissibility: Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in households. BMC Medicine 10 117

Danon L, House TA, Read JM, Keeling MJ (2012) Social encounter networks: collective properties and disease transmission. J. R. S. Interface 9 2826-2833

Keeling MJ, Shattock A (2012) Optimal but unequitable prophylatic distribution of vaccine. Epidemics 4 78-85

Rock K, Wood D Keeling MJ (2012) Modelling the Future of the Hawaiian Honeycreeper: An Ecological and Epidemiological Problem Ecological Modelling 235 26-35

Sutton AJ, Karagenc T, Bakirici S, Sarali H, Pekel G, Medley GF (2012) Modelling the transmission dynamics of Theileria annulata: model structure and validation for the Turkish context. Parasitology 139 441-453

Sutton AJ, House T, Hope VD, Ncube F, Wiessing L, Kretzschmar M (2012) Modelling HIV in the injecting drug user population and the male homosexual population in a developed country context. Epidemics 4 48-56

Tildesley MJ, Smith G, Keeling, MJ (2012) Modeling the spread and control of foot-and-mouth disease in Pennsylvania following its discovery and options for control. Prev Vet Med 104 224-239

Vernon MC, Keeling MJ (2012) Impact of regulatory perturbations to disease spread through cattle movements in Great Britain Prev Vet Med (in press)

2011

Carslake D, Grant W, Green LE, Cave J, Greaves J, Keeling M, McEldowney J, Weldegebriel H, Medley GF (2011) Endemic cattle diseases: comparative epidemiology and governance. Phil Trans Roy Soc Lond B. 366 1975-1986.

Danon L, Ford AP, House T, Jewell CP, Keeling MJ, Roberts GO, Ross JV, Vernon MC (2011) Networks and the epidemiology of infectious disease. Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis. 2011 284909

House T (2011) Modelling behaviour contagion J. R. Soc Inferface. 8 909-912

House T, Baguelin M, van Hoek AJ, White PJ, Sadique Z, Eames K, Read JM, Hens N, Melegaro A, Edmunds WJ, Keeling MJ (2011) Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic. Proc. Roy. Soc. Lond. B 10.1098/rspb.2010.2688

House T, Keeling MJ (2011) Insights from unifying modern approximations to infections on networks. J. R. Soc Inferface. 8 67-73

House T, Keeling MJ (2011) Epidemic prediction and control in clusterd populations. J. Theo Biol. 272 1-7

Lurette A, Belloc C, Keeling M (2011) Contact structure and Salmonella control in the network of pig movements in France Prev. Vet. Med. 102 30-40

Keeling MJ, White PJ (2011) Targeting vaccination against novel infections: risk, age and spatial structure for pandemic influenza in Great Britain J. Roy Soc. Interface 8 661-607

Medley GF (2011) Diagnosing the individual to control the epidemic. Sci Trans. Med. 3 82