Update on estimating the forecasting COVID-19 outbreak in the UK

23/2020 Roberto Pancrazi

In a previous paper I estimated the Richards’ phenological model to forecast the Covid-19 evolution in the UK and in England’s NHS regions using data up to April 8th, 2020. This briefing updates the model, taking into account three important sets of information: first, new data are available; second, the number of tests have been increasing; and third, there was quite a significant revision on how the data on both cases and tests were reported. I also update the data up to April 24th, 2020. The new data shows that, under current lockdown conditions, the UK should reach zero new cases by 8th August.

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