Scenario 2025
Scenario Planning and Foresight 2025
Making Connections
15-16 December 2025, Warwick Business School, Coventry, UK
This is a call for the fourth international conference on Scenario Planning and Foresight with the theme of 'Making connections'. The conference is a joint event between the UK Operational Research SocietyLink opens in a new window and Warwick Business School (WBS)Link opens in a new window. Building on the success of the first three conferences (2015, 2018, 2023), we are keeping the extended the scope of the conference to include Scenario Planning as well as contributions from the wider field of Foresight.
This will be an in-person two-day event held at Warwick Business School with an optional additional half-day workshop. We are delighted that Paul JH Schoemaker will be joining us virtually to deliver a keynote talk and that Ted Fuller and Valdir Ermida will be delivering keynote talks in person at the conference. Our event will also include discussions on the latest developments in academic research and practical applications
relating to scenario planning.
We invite academics and practitioners to submit abstracts of up to 500 words (including references). Please use the Abstract submission link at the top left of this page. All submissions will be reviewed to be accepted to the conference.
Academics’ contributions could be both theoretical and empirical from any field of scenario planning or foresight. The abstracts should indicate: the research focus; the literature to which they are contributing; a short description of the methodology; and an indication of the research outcomes. We welcome contributions from doctoral students for whom there will be a limited number of bursaries to cover the registration fee.
Practitioners’ contributions could be both from their own organisation and/or consultancy projects.
Abstracts should indicate the nature of the intervention and an indication on the lessons learned.
******* Please submit your abstract before 30 September 2025 *******
Optional Workshop
For this conference we have added an optional half-day workshop on the day after the conference (Wednesday December 17, 2025) which we invite you to attend. The workshop will be a participative event exploring how we position and promote scenario planning and foresight to interested audiences/clients.
Confirmed Keynote Speakers
Dr Valdir Ermida, is a Sanitarian. Currently, he is the Head of Planning at the Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases/Fiocruz in Brazil. He has a BSc in Psychology (State University of Rio de Janeiro), a Residency in Collective Health (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro), an MSc in Planning and Management of Health Systems and Services (National School of Public Health/Fiocruz), and a PhD in Business and Management (The University of Manchester, UK). He has 26 years of experience in Public Health Planning and has been dedicating the last 15 years to Foresight. Valdir co-led the creation of the Brazilian Network of Foresight, in 2011, and the organisation of the First Brazilian Meeting of Foresight and Strategic Planning in 2012. In 2021, he translated to Portuguese the book "Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation" by Miles, Saritas and Sokolov.
Dr. Valdir Ermida’s experience draws on the practice of scenario planning conducted at the Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases (INI), the clinical research unit of Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), the Brazilian Public Research Organisation (PRO) for Health. Fiocruz is the largest health organisation in Latin America and was the main organisation at the forefront of the fight against SARS‑CoV‑2 in Brazil.
Scenario Planning within Fiocruz mirrors its distinctive organisational culture rooted in an uncommon form of Industrial Democracy, whose “democratic managerial administration” is based on a unique concept of health, summarised in the motto “Democracy is Health”. This ethos not only influences internal decision-making but also creates an innovative environment for Foresight methodologies.
Fiocruz thus stands as a unique case in the scenario planning landscape—an outlier whose practices offer insights with wide-reaching implications for both public and private institutions and organisations seeking to blend foresight with democratic governance models, offering valuable and broadly applicable lessons for Foresight practitioners.
Professor Ted Fuller is Professor Emeritus and holder of the UNESCO Chair on Responsible Foresight for Sustainable Development, University of Lincoln, UK.
Ted’s academic career relates to future-making and humanity’s relationships with its futures. His research has concentrated on small enterprises, entrepreneurship, foresight and anticipation. He has held senior positions at the Universities of Durham, Teesside and Lincoln and is widely published. He was Editor-in-Chief of Futures Journal for ten years. The UNESCO Chair was established in 2019 and involves a group of colleagues at the University of Lincoln who work in collaboration with other UNESCO Chairs and partners from Higher Education Institutions and NGOs in the Global South. Ted’s current research is on responsible futures. The Chair members use a responsible foresight approach to frame activities that help to inspire, and to link education and knowledge to better futures. The group’s activities include joint research, advocacy, capacity building, educational programmes of exchange, doctoral supervision, and post graduate education.
Paul JH Schoemaker (Ph.D.) will be joining us virtually. Paul is an author, educator, researcher and entrepreneur in strategic management, decision making, innovation and leadership. He has written 125 articles and thirteen books, including the landmark Winning Decisions with J. Edard Russo. Paul served for 12 years on the faculty of University of Chicago’s graduate school of business. While there, he spent a 20 months sabbatical with Royal Dutch/Shell’s scenario planning group in London. He also served for 15 years as the research director of the Mack Institute for Innovation Management at the Wharton School, where he was also taught strategy and decision making, He was a visiting professor with Cedep at Insead for several years.
On the business front, Paul was the founder and executive chairman of Decision Strategies International, a two decades old strategy consulting and training firm with offices in the US, UK and Asia. He sold the firm in 2016 to Heidrick & Struggles. In addition, Paul served for years as the Chairman of two other companies, one being a Dutch food additives company operating in Europe and the another a wholesale distributor of salt in the USA based in Ohio. He has been active in other private and non-profit sectors also as an advisor, director, investor, or benefactor, such as the Decision Education Foundation in Palo Alto, CA which provides teaching materials in critical thinking and decision making for adolescents.
Important dates and Conference registration
******* Please submit your abstract before 30 September 2025 *******
Authors of accepted papers are required to register before 31 October 2025
to ensure their paper is scheduled in the programme
Non-author registration will close at 24.00 hrs (GMT) on 30 November 2025
Please register to attend using this linkLink opens in a new window
Authors will be notified about acceptance as soon as possible after their submission has been reviewed.
Further details of the conference (schedule, registration, accommodation, travel etc.) will appear and be updated on this conference website over the coming weeks and months.
Please visit the OR Society website for details of the Cancellation and Refund Policy
Main contact: Scenario2025 at wbs dot ac dot uk
Organising Committee:
Dr F. O’Brien (Frances dot O-Brien at wbs dot ac dot uk)
Dr E Reynolds (Eleanor dot Reynolds at wbs dot ac dot uk)
Prof. M. Meadows (ac3495 at coventry dot ac dot uk)
Dr E. Tapinos (E dot Tapinos at strath dot ac dot uk)
Prof. G. Wright (George dot Wright at strath dot ac dot uk)
Dr M Crawford (M dot Crawford at napier dot ac dot uk)
